Gas prices in Ukraine set a new record: what to expect next
19 June 2025 17:08
The Ukrainian gas market has recorded the highest prices in the last 2.5 years. As of mid-June 2025, the cost of a thousand cubic meters of gas exceeded UAH 31,550 including VAT. Some contracts were even concluded at a price of more than UAH 32,000 per thousand cubic meters, which was the highest since November 2022. Such data was published by the analytical platform EXPRO, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Reasons for the sharp rise
Prices began to rise rapidly in early June. While in May gas cost about 19-20 thousand UAH/thousand cubic meters, over the past two weeks its price has increased by one and a half times. In the last few days alone, the price has jumped by almost UAH 2,000.
The main reason is the changing situation on the European market. At the European hub TTF, the price of gas has risen to more than €40/MWh. This is due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: the armed conflict between Israel and Iran has negatively affected the stability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in the region. Not only production sites, but also logistics routes were threatened. As a result, traders started buying gas ahead of schedule, which pushed prices up.
In addition, demand for gas to fill storage facilities before the heating season is growing in Europe. Ukraine, which actively imports fuel, is directly affected by this pressure.
Domestic factors also play a role
Another important factor behind the rise in gas prices in Ukraine was a decrease in supply from domestic producers. In particular, Ukrnafta sells part of its resources to Naftogaz at a price of about UAH 12,000 per thousand cubic meters under special obligations (PSO). However, this volume does not meet market demand.
At the same time, industrial consumers – primarily metallurgical and chemical companies – are building up stocks in preparation for winter. This puts additional pressure on the market. Companies prefer to purchase gas in advance, fearing an even greater price spike.
What experts say
Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev confirmed that the Ukrainian gas market is showing signs of rising costs, and industrial consumers were the first to feel it. According to the expert, the main reason is the shortage of the resource on the market caused by low gas reserves after the end of the heating season.
“The situation is very interesting now: after the winter, there is very little gas left in the storage facilities. What is being sold now is either current production or imports. But the demand remains, and it needs to be covered by something,” the expert explained.
According to him, this is the main reason why prices have risen. In particular, for business.
However, Mr. Ryabtsev emphasized that the situation is not critical yet:
“We cannot say that prices are sky-high. We have already gone through periods when a cubic meter of gas cost more than UAH 40. So today’s prices are not the worst case scenario.
The main problem of the upcoming heating season, according to the expert, is that Naftogaz did not fulfill its plans to build up reserves for the winter, and the government ignored this situation. That is why the market was left with virtually no reserves and now Ukraine is forced to balance daily between domestic production and purchases of gas on foreign markets.
The prospects for the next heating season also cause concern for the analyst.
The filling of underground storage facilities continues, but it is slow. There is still no public answer as to where Naftogaz will get at least another 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas. There is no information about contracts or agreements,” Ryabtsev said.
When asked whether Ukraine could face a gas shortage, the expert said the following:
“There are risks. If the obligations to accumulate volumes are not fulfilled, we may well enter the winter with a shortage of resources. This means that there may be problems with the uninterrupted supply of the population and industry.
Read also: Gas in Ukraine is trading at a higher price than in Europe. How this will help imports
Comparison with Europe and import potential
Despite its high price on the domestic market, Ukrainian gas still competes with European gas. In terms of conversion, the price of €40/MWh corresponds to about 32,000 UAH/thousand cubic meters, which is about the same level as in Ukraine. Thus, the price increase stimulates gas imports from the EU. Traders have already begun to actively consider contract options with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.
Implications for consumers and the state
The current price increase will not have an immediate effect on household consumers, as their tariff remains fixed within the framework of state regulation. However, for businesses, this is a significant increase in costs. It could lead to higher prices for products and a decrease in investment activity.
For the government, the rising cost of imported gas means additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves. If the situation on the European markets does not stabilize, Ukraine will have to revise its procurement strategy and possibly resume direct government involvement in market balancing.
Financial analysts and economic experts emphasize that the jump in gas prices to over UAH 31,500 per thousand cubic meters is the result of the simultaneous influence of external and internal factors. The Ukrainian market is in a zone of turbulence, and as long as geopolitical risks remain high, price stabilization is unlikely.
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