Milk prices in Ukraine are rising: shortage of raw materials and demand from abroad
24 July 2025 05:11
In the second half of July, purchase prices for milk in Ukraine showed an increase. The main factors are the shortage of raw milk in the domestic market, strong demand for exchange-traded dairy products abroad and the devaluation of the hryvnia. This was announced by the analyst of the Association of Milk Producers Giorgi Kukhaleishvili, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Analysts predict that in early August prices will continue to rise, but in the second half of the month they may decline due to risks in the European export market.
What is happening with prices?
As of July 22, the average purchase price of extra-quality milk was 16.14 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 14 kopecks more than a month ago.
Price range: 15.50 – 16.70 UAH/kg. The upper limit increased by 20 kopecks.
Premium milk costs an average of 15.85 UAH/kg (10 kopecks).
Prices range from 15.30 to 16.35 UAH/kg. The upper limit went up by 15 kopecks.
First-class milk remains stable at 15.45 UAH/kg, unchanged from the previous month.
The minimum price is 15.00 UAH/kg. The maximum price is 15.60 UAH/kg
The weighted average price for the three categories is 15.92 UAH/kg, which is 12 kopecks more than in June.
What influences the market?
Analyst Giorgi Kukhaleishvili explains that the main drivers of price growth are
shortage of raw milk on the domestic market;
high export demand for exchange-traded dairy products, in particular:
- exports of butter increased by 50% in the first half of the year;
- casein exports increased;
- devaluation of the hryvnia, which stimulates the growth of prices for finished products.
This also improved the profitability of production of such products as milk powder, casein, and cheese products.
Forecast: growth or decline
It is expected that in early August, the price of milk may rise by another 20-30 kopecks, given the continuing shortage and high demand from exporters.
However, the situation may change in the second half of August due to uncertainty in trade with the EU.
What’s wrong with exports to Europe?
In June, the European Commission canceled autonomous trade measures (ATMs) for Ukraine. A new trade agreement, which provides for the transition to EU standards by 2028 and establishes new export quotas, has not yet been signed. The reason for this is the resistance of Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia), which demand restrictions on Ukrainian grain.
This creates a risk that Ukrainian dairy exports to the EU will be suspended as early as August. Quotas for butter and milk powder are likely to last until the end of August, and with duties in place, supplies will become economically unprofitable.
The situation on the Ukrainian milk market remains unstable. While external demand is high, prices are rising, but this could change in a few weeks. Producers should closely monitor the decisions of the European Commission and negotiations with EU member states, which are effectively blocking the signing of an updated agreement.
