In March, Russia’s oil tax revenues fell by nearly 50%
3 April 22:09
In March, Russia’s oil tax revenues fell by nearly half compared to last year.
According to Bloomberg estimates based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, Russian producers paid 494.9 billion rubles (about $6.18 billion) in oil taxes—48% less than a year earlier, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
Total federal budget revenues from oil and gas fell by nearly 43%, to 617 billion rubles.
Why revenues declined
The main reason for the decline in revenues was the low prices for Russian oil at the beginning of the year.
Taxes for March were calculated based on February prices for Urals crude oil—Russia’s main export blend.
According to the Russian government:
- the average price was less than $45 per barrel;
- while the 2026 budget was based on $59 per barrel.
Prices were affected by:
- energy sanctions against Russia;
- buyers’ demands for significant discounts;
- the strengthening of the ruble, which meant the budget received less revenue in the national currency.
Budgetary pressure due to the war
The decline in energy revenues has increased pressure on the Russian budget.
According to Bloomberg:
- the Russian Federation’s budget deficit is growing;
- economic growth is slowing;
- spending on the war against Ukraine continues to drain state resources.
Unexpected rise in oil prices
The situation may change in the near future due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Following the escalation of the war around Iran, prices for Urals crude oil rose sharply.
By late March, Russian oil supplied to India was trading above $120 per barrel, even exceeding the price of the benchmark Brent crude oil.
The Role of the Strait of Hormuz
One of the reasons for the price spike was the situation in the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for energy exports from the Persian Gulf countries.
Due to military operations, oil transportation via this route was almost completely blocked.
Russian oil does not depend on this route, making it more attractive to buyers in Asia.
Demand from Asia
The rise in demand intensified after the U.S. decided to allow a number of countries, including India,
to purchase large volumes of Russian oil already at sea.
This temporary easing of sanctions helped increase Russian oil shipments to Asian markets.
What this means for Russia’s budget
According to Bloomberg sources, the sharp rise in oil prices could allow Moscow to:
- abandon plans to cut spending;
- maintain or even increase the defense budget if the war continues.
