The EU has approved a mechanism for phasing out Russian gas imports: experts explain how it will work
27 January 18:31
The member states of the European Union have officially approved a regulatory act that provides for the gradual phasing out of Russian gas supplies — both pipeline and liquefied — to the bloc’s countries.
The EU Council announced this on January 26.
The document also introduces tools to control supplies and encourages the diversification of energy sources. The Council of the European Union emphasizes that the adopted regulation is an important step in the implementation of the REPowerEU strategy, which aims to completely eliminate the EU’s dependence on Russian energy sources.
“From today, the European Union’s energy sector is becoming more reliable, sustainable, and diverse. We are leaving behind our harmful dependence on Russian gas and taking a fundamental step — in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation — towards creating an autonomous Energy Union,” said Cyprus’ Minister of Energy, Trade, and Industry Michael Damianou.
Under the new rules, imports of Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas into the EU will be banned. The restrictions will take effect six weeks after the regulation enters into force.
Existing gas contracts will be given a transition period to minimize the negative impact on markets and prices. A complete halt to LNG imports from Russia is planned for early 2027, while pipeline gas supplies will be completely stopped in the fall of the same year.
Before allowing gas onto the European market, member states are required to verify its country of origin. Violation of the requirements of the regulation will result in significant financial penalties: at least €2.5 million for individuals and from €40 million for companies — either at least 3.5% of their total worldwide annual turnover or 300% of the estimated turnover of the relevant transaction.
By March 1, EU countries must develop national plans to diversify gas supplies and identify potential risks of replacing Russian fuel. To this end, companies will be required to notify national authorities and the European Commission of all existing or residual contracts with Russia. Countries that still purchase Russian oil must also submit appropriate diversification plans.
In exceptional circumstances, the import ban may be temporarily suspended for up to four weeks.
The next step will be the publication of the regulation in the Official Journal of the EU. It will enter into force the day after its publication and will have direct effect in all Member States. In addition, the European Commission plans to propose separate legislation to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2027.
“Less money — less war”
Experts warn that without real sanctions and penalties, the document may remain nothing more than a declaration. Maxim Gardus, communications specialist for the Razom We Stand initiative, emphasizes in a comment for Kommersant Ukrainian that the adoption of the plan was preceded by lengthy and tense discussions.
“There was a lot of talk, bargaining, different opinions, and fierce opposition from the current leadership of the European Commission. Nevertheless, the plan was adopted, and it looks quite fast.”
According to him, the key argument is financial.
“Russia earned approximately $100 billion a year in Europe from energy exports. This is a significant part of the Russian federal budget, 30-40% of which goes to finance the war. The less money there is, the fewer resources there are for the war.”
Gardus emphasizes that Russian energy resources are not just a commodity. According to him, the consequences of this influence have already become apparent:
“We saw what this led to in Hungary. But not only there: networks of influence were uncovered in Germany, there were high-profile scandals in France and Belgium, and constant scandals in Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova.”
What the EU plan entails
According to the new approach, the rejection of Russian energy resources will take place in stages:
- first, short-term (spot) contracts will be terminated, primarily in the liquefied gas market;
- then, long-term contracts will be restricted and terminated;
- a ban on new agreements will be imposed.
“Europe has long since abandoned Russian oil. The gas market is more complex, but after spot contracts, it will be the turn of long-term contracts,” explains Gardus.
The expert separately emphasizes the fundamental difference between sanctions and the new regulation.
“Sanctions are temporary and need to be regularly reconfirmed. Regulations are a change in EU legislation. They do not need to be constantly renewed. This is a fundamental change in European Union policy.”
“Fine words without punishment”
In contrast, Taras Zagorodniy, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group, is much more skeptical about the prospects for implementing the plan.
“So far, these are just nice words. In 2022, Hungary and Slovakia were granted exemptions — they were supposed to gradually abandon Russian energy sources. They did not do so. And what happened? Nothing.”
According to him, without real sanctions, the document will not work. Zagorodniy also draws attention to indirect forms of dependence on Russian gas.
“Fertilizers are the same gas, just processed. Therefore, we must very carefully monitor those ‘levers’ that say they are not buying anything.”
The expert calls external pressure the only real driving force for change. According to Zagorodniy, the EU’s rejection of Russian energy sources is only possible in the context of a tough US policy.
“This may happen not because Europe does not want to sponsor the aggressor, but because the US wants to sell its oil and gas. That is the kind of diversification I believe in. Everything else is just talk for now.”
Therefore, the adoption by the EU Council of a regulation on the phased cessation of Russian gas imports is, without exaggeration, one of the most important decisions of the European Union since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. Formally, this is not just another package of sanctions, but a systematic attempt to change the very architecture of European energy policy — with the course of complete abandonment of Russian energy sources enshrined in legislation. It is this difference that makes the document a potentially much stronger and longer-lasting instrument of pressure on Russia.
The key test for the new regulation will be its practical application — the ability of the European Commission and member states not only to adopt rules, but also to enforce them, particularly with regard to large corporations and “problematic” countries. Fines, gas origin checks, contract transparency requirements, and national diversification plans — all of this must work not on paper, but in real politics.
