Ukraine is waiting for workers from abroad: how many migrants are needed to restore the economy
30 January 2025 17:56
ANALYSIS
The first migrant workers invited due to demographic problems may appear in Zakarpattia. A furniture manufacturing company in Tyachiv plans to employ 160 people from the People’s Republic of Bangladesh due to an increase in production. The company has vacant jobs that have not been filled due to the lack of men. The first 40 Bangladeshis are about to start work, and in the near future the number of foreign workers in Ukraine may increase to several million. Who will come to work in Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" found out.
The first to officially import a group of migrants was the Lamella State Enterprise in the Tyachiv City Territorial Community, which specializes in furniture manufacturing, including for export. And they faced a labor shortage, as only 430 of 700 jobs were filled.
Last summer, the mayor of Tyachev, Ivan Kovach, complained to local journalists that there were not enough hands to work in the factories. Men are either at war or don’t want to fight, so they hide from the TCC and don’t go to work. Or they go abroad legally or illegally. And the head of the regional state administration, Myroslav Biletsky, noted that the number of able-bodied people has dramatically decreased. Many internally displaced persons have come to the region, but few of them are able-bodied.
“Only 37% of Transcarpathian IDPs are employed. But we also need to understand that the majority of IDPs are unable to work. At the same time, according to sociological research, about 300,000 locals have left Transcarpathia over the three years of war. These are mostly able-bodied people. In terms of population, nothing seems to have changed: 300 thousand left, 350 thousand moved,”
– said the head of the region.
Migrants are expensive but necessary
The Transcarpathian enterprise is only the first swallow. In the short term, Ukrainian businesses will have to import foreigners as labor in order to not only survive but also develop. It will be necessary to obtain work permits for them, pay for their arrival, officially employ them, sign a long-term contract, provide them with housing and food. And the salary should be at least $500 per month for unskilled workers. At the same time, a work permit for one person for a year costs 15,140 UAH, and for two years – 24,224 UAH.
As Vasyl Voskoboynyk, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, emphasizes in an interview with Kommersant Ukrainsky, hiring foreigners to work in Ukraine involves serious monetary costs, and it will cost much more to hire them than locals, but this is a necessary measure because there are not enough locals.
Bringing labor migrants to Ukraine is a necessary condition for supporting the labor market. Since the early 2010s, the number of deaths in Ukraine has exceeded the number of births by 200-250 thousand. Closer to the 2020s, the gap was 300 thousand people. That is, the country is dying. And just to maintain the number of people in the country, we need to attract at least the same number from outside. This is impossible to do during the war, and it is unlikely to be possible after the war.
But we should also not forget about Ukrainians leaving the country. According to various estimates, 5-7 million people have left. And we have up to 5 million additional IDPs.
“And 75% of Ukrainian businesses are already facing a shortage of workers. Structural unemployment is widespread in Ukraine. For example, a person worked at a steel plant in Mariupol, and if he or she moves to the west of the country, he or she is unlikely to find a job in his or her specialty. We are faced with the fact that a huge number of able-bodied people are abroad, a large number of IDPs, there is a huge need for workers, and, according to various international organizations, unemployment in the country has reached 2 million people,”
– emphasizes Vasyl Voskoboinyk.
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We are waiting for workers from Pakistan, Turkey and Bangladesh
Vasyl Voskoboinyk emphasizes that the mismatch between qualifications and demand in the labor market creates a situation where employers are forced to look for and attract foreigners from other countries. And they are already coming. Last year, employment centers issued about 3,000 work permits, of which 1,740 were canceled. People arrived but didn’t officially start working, and our work permits are tied to residence permits. By law, they should be deported. But we are facing difficult times ahead, and we are losing young people in particular.
“In my opinion, 70% of those who are abroad are unlikely to return to Ukraine. It is impossible to stop young people from leaving the country, and the fact that there are not enough boys in grades 10 and 11 today is one of the alarming signals. We are losing a generation. And it is unlikely that the situation will change, at least until the hostilities end,”
– the expert believes.
And after the end of hostilities, we will lack builders, drivers, welders, and people of working specialties, he believes.
“And people from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and possibly Turkey may come to us. They may also come from European countries if they receive large contracts, for example, for reconstruction. It will all depend on what kind of work needs to be done. But we need to prepare for the fact that we will have to look for people all over the world, and there will be competition for labor migrants. And the foreigner will have to choose where to go – to Ukraine, where the minimum wage is UAH 8 thousand, or to Poland, where the minimum wage is UAH 47 thousand, or to Germany, where the minimum wage is over UAH 100 thousand. We will have to compete with developed countries and their economies for labor migrants,”
– emphasizes Voskoboynik.
For example, Uzbekistan has increased its population by 80%, the expert says, and the German government has been running a program for young people there for several years to teach them German and retrain them to work in Germany. And they will go there because the salaries are much higher. We will compete with different countries for labor.
How many labor migrants can we accept?
According to the President of the Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, based on the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, we will need 4.5 million workers in addition to the level of the existing workforce in 2021. The International Organization for Labor and Migration estimates this need at 8.2 million workers in addition to the number that was in 2021. And if we succeed, then we will be able to reach an economic growth rate of 10% per year. To reach a GDP of $262 billion by 2032. This is necessary to restore the destroyed economy.
If we manage to fill jobs from internal reserves – working pensioners, the disabled, and attracting young people to the labor market – it would be good. But Ukrainians are physically dying out; we have 7.5 children per 10 women, and we need 22 children. Citizens are leaving the country, and there is no certainty that there will be rapid economic growth after the war, which will affect the outflow of population. It is likely that Ukrainians will continue to leave for work, and we will be forced to attract labor migrants. To prevent this from happening, Ukraine must become a country of freedom – freedom of choice, entrepreneurship, freedom of speech, and movement. If this happens, then Ukrainians will come back, foreigners will leave, and we will prosper.
Today we need to change our migration policy and answer a number of questions:
- how will we return our citizens to their homeland?
- how we will reduce the volume of labor migration from Ukraine after the end of hostilities and the opening of the borders;
- how we will attract talented people from all over the world to Ukraine.
Without answering these three questions, we cannot talk about a fast track to Ukraine’s recovery.
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Author: Alla Dunina
