Ukraine has lost 60% of gas production: what it means for the economy, energy and wallets of Ukrainians
9 October 19:16
In early October, the Russian army launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including gas facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava regions. According to Bloomberg, the attacks on October 3 destroyed about 60% of the national gas production. This is one of the most serious losses for the Ukrainian energy system since the beginning of the full-scale war.
[Kommersant analyzed how this situation will affect tariffs for households, gas supply and heating in December-February 2025-2026 in Ukraine.
Gas infrastructure in the crosshairs
Until 2022, Ukraine was fully self-sufficient in natural gas. However, since the outbreak of war, production has become a target for regular Russian attacks. In recent months, attacks on gas fields, storage facilities, and compressor stations have become systematic.
Russia will do everything to prevent us from producing our gas. It will be difficult to defend all of this,” President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address on October 4.
According to him, the scale of the destruction indicates that for the first time in recent years, the country risks not covering domestic demand with its own production.
Imports instead of domestic gas: 4.4 billion cubic meters by spring
If the shelling continues, Ukraine will have to buy about 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas, which is almost 20% of the country’s annual consumption.
The government estimates that the cost of imports will be about €2 billion.
To cover the deficit, Ukraine has asked the G7 countries to
- provide equipment to restore damaged facilities,
- strengthen the air defense system to protect the energy sector,
- help finance gas imports.
European market reacts: gas prices rise again
The news of Ukraine’s production cuts has already had an impact on the European energy market. Fears that official Kyiv will increase purchases from the EU have led to an increase in quotations on European hubs.
Analysts remind that the EU’s gas reserves are currently below the annual average, so even a moderately cold winter can deplete reserves and cause a new wave of price increases.
Read also: Gas for Ukraine: production resumes after enemy attacks, import contracts are being signed
Repairs cost hundreds of millions of euros
According to government sources, the cost of emergency repairs to the power grid has already exceeded €758 million.
The total direct losses of the energy sector since the beginning of the war are estimated at more than $20.5 billion, of which:
- uSD 14.8 billion in the electricity sector;
- uSD 1.35 billion in the gas industry,
- uSD 1.7 billion in the oil sector.
These figures do not take into account the losses associated with the seizure of the Zaporizhzhya NPP.
Who is helping Ukraine?
Ukraine receives international financial support to cover its energy needs:
- The EBRD provided a €500 million loan in August for emergency gas purchases;
- The European Investment Bank this month allocated another €300 million;
- The European Commission and other institutions are considering additional aid packages.
The Commission is deeply concerned about the damage caused by Russia to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. We are in close contact with Kyiv,” said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, spokesperson for the European Commission.
Domestic production is a priority
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes: Ukraine will try to rely on its own production as much as possible.
However, in the event of a large-scale attack on the entire gas infrastructure, the government is ready to quickly increase imports.
“We know where to find the necessary money if there is a strong attack on all gas production facilities,” the Head of State said.
“The speed of production recovery will depend on the pace of repairs, the scale of future attacks and the capabilities of energy companies.
The Ministry of Energy is already developing scenarios for each region – from optimistic to crisis.
In addition, on October 9, it became known that Naftogaz had already borrowed UAH 3 billion from Oschadbank to import gas for the winter.
What this means for consumers
Gas remains the main source of heat for most households.
If the pace of repairs does not keep pace with the extent of the damage, localized heat supply interruptions may occur in some areas.
At the same time, the Government assures that no critical outages or tariff hikes are expected, as the procurement is financed by international partners.
Rising costs, ongoing attacks, and lack of funding pose a long-term risk to the country’s energy stability.
In the run-up to the heating season, the Government has already made a number of decisions regarding the energy sector. Among them:
- allocated an additional UAH 1.5 billion to the frontline regions to protect energy facilities;
- formed a reserve of equipment for the prompt restoration of energy supply;
- imposed a moratorium on disconnecting consumers in frontline communities from power supply.
In addition, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko , assured that the fixed price for natural gas for households and budgetary institutions would remain unchanged until March 31, 2026.
This means that the price for households will remain at UAH 7,420 per thousand cubic meters, and for budgetary institutions – UAH 16,390 per thousand cubic meters (including VAT).
According to Ms. Svyrydenko, this decision will help maintain stable tariffs throughout the heating season.
According to her, the Government is doing everything possible to ensure that Ukrainians have electricity, heat and predictable bills even under martial law. She emphasized that given the intensification of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, the main task of the state this winter is to ensure stability and uninterrupted heating season.
