Ukraine is dying faster than ever: birth rate at historic low
6 November 15:09
Demographers note that for the country’s population to grow, one woman must give birth to at least two children.
Scientists call this figure the total fertility rate, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing data from the Institute of Demography and Social Studies.
According to the institute, for the country’s population to grow, each woman must give birth to an average of more than two (2.1) children, not exactly two. This figure is called the total fertility rate, and if it is higher than 2.1, the population can grow. This figure takes into account that some women will give birth to more and some to fewer, but on average there should be more than two children per woman to compensate for mortality and ensure population replacement. The full-scale invasion has plunged Ukraine’s fertility rate to its lowest ever recorded level of 0.8.
2.1 children: This is the minimum rate for population replacement to keep the population stable, as this number takes into account mortality and the fact that not all those born are women capable of giving birth to the next generation.
If each woman gives birth to exactly two children, this leads to stagnation or slow population decline, as it only compensates for about half of the mortality.
Having a child in a time of war is a difficult decision that not everyone dares to make.
However, the numbers do not reveal specific women with their fears, risks, and hopes.
What is the current birth rate in Ukraine?
In 2019, 100 women gave birth to 123 children. This is half the number needed. In 2021, there were 116 children per 100 women, when the covid had a big impact on the situation. Now 100 women give birth to about 95-100 children. These figures were voiced by Oleksandr Gladun, Doctor of Economics, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Despite the significant decline in the birth rate in Ukraine, the figures are not the worst in the world. For example, in South Korea, 100 women give birth to 72 children on average, in China – 100 children, Japan and Italy – 120 children.
