Ukraine strikes at the rear of Russia amid the Russian offensive in Kursk: how does this change the course of negotiations?
11 March 17:40
In recent months, the situation in the Kursk region has remained tense. And on the eve of the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, the Russian army began to put more pressure on the Ukrainian defense line south of Suji. In addition, the enemy continues to try to take control of the Armed Forces’ logistics routes. Military expert Dmytro Snegiryov sees these actions as an attempt to weaken Ukraine’s position in negotiations with the United States.
Did Russia succeed in realizing its plans in view of the powerful strike on the territory of the Russian Federation on March 11.
The intensification of hostilities in the Kursk region by the Russian army is linked to international trends, in particular the possibility of so-called “peace talks”.
About this in an exclusive commentary
“Even before Donald Trump’s inauguration, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing three people close to Trump, that Trump’s plan called for freezing the front line and creating an 800-mile demilitarized zone (almost 1,300 km). At the time, this statement did not cause much of a stir, but it is worth noting that the line of contact was 1,200 km, and an additional 100 km included the area controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region. In other words, Trump was actually creating a diplomatic trap for Russia,” explains Dmytro Snegiryov
Dmytro Snegiryov emphasizes that the Russians are well aware of the future scenario. So, at the moment, the main strategic tasks of the Russian troops are to try to squeeze the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Kursk region. This could weaken Ukraine’s position in the negotiation process with the United States.
“The presence of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region is the very trump card that Trump talked about not having. If the Russians manage to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of Kursk before the negotiation process begins, the Ukrainian side will have a worse negotiating position. That is why the intensification of hostilities is connected with this.” – Dmytro Snegiryov
The Russian offensive in Kursk is not only a military operation, but also an element of the Kremlin’s political game. Russia is trying to weaken Ukraine’s position before possible negotiations with the United States, in particular on freezing the war. However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold important strategic positions, which gives Kyiv additional arguments in international diplomacy.
“It is now important to stabilize the situation in the Kursk region, and the Defense Forces have every chance to do so. However, there are doubts about the ceasefire and the subsequent “lull”, because Russia is unlikely to agree to it, especially on land,” Dmytro Snegiryov
Russia’s massive UAV attack: political Consequences and a Signal to the West
On the night of March 11, 2025, Russia suffered the largest drone attack in the entire period of the war. This attack coincided with the preparation of a meeting between the US and Ukrainian delegations, which may indicate its not only military but also political significance.
According to the official data of the Russian Ministry of Defense, their air defense allegedly “shot down” 337 drones, but the real consequences of this attack indicate otherwise. Russian propaganda media tried to present the event as a success of their air defense system, but numerous videos and eyewitness accounts reveal the extent of the defeat. Explosions were heard in a number of regions, including the Moscow region.
Serious damage was reported to oil refineries, logistics centers, and military installations. The attack demonstrated the weakness of Russian air defense, the threat to their military industry, and Ukraine’s growing ability to strike behind enemy lines.
After the attack, the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the Russian military-industrial complex (MIC) was on the verge of collapse. The loss of strategic facilities means that Russia does not have time to compensate for the cost of armaments, and resources are being depleted. Budanov emphasized that the war is costing the Kremlin a billion dollars a day, and it is becoming more and more difficult to maintain this level of fighting every month.
Thetiming of the attack is no coincidence – it took place on the eve of an important meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine. Thus, Kyiv is demonstrating to its allies that it is capable of delivering pinpoint strikes deep into the enemy’s rear, which is a powerful argument for further military support from the West. The scale of the attack confirms the effectiveness of Ukrainian technology and preparation for new stages of the war.
In addition, this event may affect the domestic political situation in Russia. Defeats at the front and a sense of vulnerability within the country are increasing criticism of the Putin regime among even the most loyal groups of the population. Increased internal instability could accelerate changes in the leadership of the Russian Federation, which would be in Ukraine’s favor.
