Ukrainians trust the Armed Forces, but not the TCC: study
25 August 12:15
Ukrainians continue to firmly believe in winning the war and highly value the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), but trust in territorial manning centers (TMC) remains at a low level. This is evidenced by the data of a national survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) together with the group “Rating” at the end of July 2025, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The survey polled 2,400 adult Ukrainians across the country (except for the occupied territories) by computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI).
High trust in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
The Armed Forces of Ukraine remain the institution with the highest level of trust among Ukrainians. According to the survey, 78% of respondents approve of the activities of the AFU: 33% strongly approve and 45% mostly approve. Only 16% disapprove (of which 2% strongly disapprove), and 6% abstained from answering. This figure is consistently high compared to previous waves of polls: in April 2022, approval reached 92%, and in September 2024, 76%.
Trust in the WSU is almost evenly distributed across the country: in the Western region – 95%, Central region – 95%, Southern region – 92%, Eastern region – 92%. Among age groups, the highest support is among young people (18-35 years old) – 96%, while among older people (51) – 94%. This indicates that the AFU is perceived as the main defender of the nation, a symbol of unity and effectiveness in war conditions. Respondents often associate the AFU with heroism and professionalism, which contrasts with criticism of other state structures.
Low trust in the TCC
In contrast to the AFU, local territorial manning centers (LTCs), which are responsible for mobilizing and manning the army, have one of the lowest levels of trust. Only 24% of respondents approve of their activities: 8% strongly and 16% mostly. At the same time, 76% express disapproval: 32% – mostly disapprove, and 44% – strongly disapprove. 8% abstain from answering.
This figure has worsened compared to previous polls: in February 2024, approval was 29% (8% strongly 21% mostly disapprove), and in September 2024 it was 25%. Regional differences are minimal, with 26% approval in the East, 24% in the South, 24% in the Center, and 24% in the West. Among age groups, the lowest trust is among young people (22%), and the highest trust is among older people (27%).
IRI experts note that the low trust in TCC is due to numerous complaints about corruption, bureaucracy, inequality in mobilization and cases of abuse. This creates tension in society, especially against the background of the need to replenish the army. The poll records that Ukrainians support the AFU as an institution, but criticize the mechanisms that ensure its functioning, which may affect motivation to serve.
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Belief in victory, timing of the war and assessment of leaders
The poll also reveals details about other military aspects that are closely related to trust in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the TSC.
Belief in Ukraine’s victory
80% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia: 51% are definitely convinced of this, while another 29% consider it likely. This is slightly lower than in April 2022 (97%), but the figure is consistently high. Only 16% are pessimistic (11% say “probably not”, 5% say “definitely not”). The highest belief in victory is among those who have not left home (81% definitely yes) and in the West of the country (52% definitely yes). In the East, the figure is lower at 46%. Young people (18-35 years old) believe in victory at 73%, while the older generation (51 years old) believes in victory at 81%.
Timeline for the end of the war
At the same time, the poll shows an increase in pessimism. Only 24% of Ukrainians hope that the war will end in less than a year, 35% give it 1-2 years, 15% – 3-4 years, and 12% think that it will take 5 years or more. Another 5% think the war could last forever. Compared to September 2024, the share of those who predict a protracted conflict (5 years) has risen from 9% to 12%. In the East, 30% believe the war will end soon, in the West only 22%. Young people are more pessimistic: only 13% expect the end in a year, 38% – in 1-2 years.
Assessment of military leaders
Commander of the AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi has the support of 49% of Ukrainians (10% strongly approve, 39% partially approve), but 36% disapprove of his work. New Defense Minister Denis Shmygal, who took office in July 2025, has 40% approval (7% strongly, 33% partially), but 41% expressed dissatisfaction. SNBO Secretary Rustem Umerov has 35% support (8% strongly, 27% partially) and 32% disapproval. These figures are below overall trust in the AFU, but above the level of support for TCC, indicating problems in governance.
Migration in case of aggravation
If the situation on the front worsens, for example, due to an enemy breakthrough, 53% of Ukrainians plan to stay put. 10% are ready to join the AFU, 8% will move to another region, and 5% will move abroad. These sentiments are stable compared to September 2024. Men are more often ready to join the army (19%), while women think more about evacuation (7% abroad).
International support
Ukrainians name the US (59%), Germany (48%), the UK (38%) and Poland (33%) as their main allies.
The idea of joining NATO is supported by 70% – they would vote in favor in a referendum, while only 9% would be against.
Broader context: economy, politics and the future
Economic challenges remain tangible
A third of Ukrainians (33%) say their financial situation has deteriorated significantly compared to the pre-war period, with another 27% saying it has moderately worsened. Looking ahead, only 16% hope for improvement in the household situation next year, 27% believe in stability, and 49% fear further deterioration.
Political optimism and restraint regarding the elections
73% of Ukrainians see the country’s future as promising, showing sustained optimism. However, the idea of holding elections during the war does not arouse enthusiasm: only 47% support parliamentary elections (of which 25% strongly), while 42% are ready to support presidential elections.
Who will be voted for
In a hypothetical vote for president, Vladimir Zelensky is leading with 31% support, while Valery Zaluzhny is gaining 25%.
In the parliamentary race, Zaluzhny ‘ s Party is ahead (22%), followed by Zelensky’s Bloc (14%).
European integration and neutrality
Three quarters of Ukrainians (75%) are in favor of joining the European Union, and 70% support NATO membership.
At the same time, 32% believe that Ukraine could choose neutral status as an alternative, reflecting a certain divergence in views on the country’s geopolitical future.
Conclusions
The results of the IRI survey highlight that despite war fatigue, Ukrainians remain optimistic about victory and trust in the Ukrainian Armed Forces as the backbone of defense. However, low trust in the TCC signals the need for reforms in mobilization to avoid social tensions. Experts recommend that the government strengthen transparency and fairness in army recruitment, which could increase the motivation and effectiveness of the AFU.
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