Sunflower oil shortage in Ukraine
23 August 18:09
In Ukraine, at the end of 2024/25 MY, there is a shortage of sunflower oil supply caused by the limited supply of sunflower and the transition of most plants to soybean and rapeseed processing.
Against this background, domestic demand prices for crude sunflower oil rose to 58000-60000 UAH/t on FCA-factory terms, which is equivalent to 1160-1200 USD/t, while export demand prices are 1135-1145 USD/t for delivery to the port in August and 1100 USD/t for delivery in September, Grain Trade reports, "Komersant Ukrainian".
As a result, small factories have stepped up processing and raised prices for sunflower (with 50% oil content) to 27500-28000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.
It is worth noting that the demand prices for August deliveries of sunflower oil to India are currently 1210-1220 USD/t, to China – 1150 USD/t, to the EU countries – 1200-1220 USD/t.
Dry weather in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovs’k regions may reduce the sunflower harvest by 1 million tons, but in the rest of Ukraine there are favorable conditions for sunflower crops, so the production forecast remains at 13.5-14 million tons.
Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania are expected to increase sunflower production compared to last year.
In Kazakhstan, in 2025, the planted areas of oilseeds increased from 2.89 mln ha to 3.99 mln ha (2.81 mln ha in 2023 and 3.86 mln ha in 2022), including sunflower – from 1.28 mln ha to 1.77 mln ha (1.18 mln ha in 2023 and 1.01 mln ha in 2022), so the production is expected to increase from 1.6 mln tonnes to 2-2.3 mln tonnes. Currently, the weather is favorable for crops in the country, so the harvest could be even higher.
Rapeseed plantings also increased to 328 thou hectares (2024 – 155 thou hectares, 2023 – 98 thou hectares, 2022 – 142 thou hectares), and oilseed rape – to 1.35 mln hectares (2024 – 972 thou hectares, 2023 – 909 thou hectares, 2022 – 1.41 mln hectares).
The increase in sunflower production and processing in Kazakhstan almost meets China’s import needs due to cheap logistics, so in the new season, Ukrainian processors will compete with Russian ones in the Indian market, as the EU will see a decrease in demand for Ukrainian oil due to the increase in its own production of sunflower and rapeseed.
According to the forecast of Oil World (Germany), the global sunflower production in 2025/26 MY will increase by 4.2 mln tonnes or 7.6% from 55.1 mln tonnes to 59.3 mln tonnes compared to the previous season.
