Fuel prices will rise in Ukraine: why the growth is artificial and who is behind it
10 November 14:55
ANALYSIS 
A new price increase is expected on the Ukrainian fuel market – diesel and gasoline may rise in price by the end of November. However, energy market analysts warn that this is an attempt to artificially inflate prices in a market where there is already collusion between major players.
Fuel prices in Ukraine may rise by the end of the year
By the end of 2025, the cost of fuel in Ukraine may increase by at least 4 hryvnias per liter. This forecast was made by the founder of Prime Group of Companies Dmytro Lyoushkin on Lviv.Media.
According to him, the domestic fuel market is affected by several factors at once: a global oil surplus, a fuel shortage in Europe after the adoption of the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, and general geopolitical tensions.
“We expect the hryvnia to rise by one hryvnia in the coming week and by the end of November, it will also rise by another hryvnia. That is, I see two hryvnias in November. At the end of December, we see another two hryvnia appreciation,” the expert said.
In addition, Mr. Lyoushkin added that an additional factor in the price increase will be the approach of the so-called “low season” when fuel consumption traditionally decreases, as well as the expected increase in excise taxes from January 2026.
Expert: price hike is a planned campaign for excessive profits
Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev in a commentary
“There have been stories about attempts to provoke price increases in the oil products market for a long time. These attempts were justified in different ways. Sometimes it was the introduction of some sanctions, which in fact should be introduced only next year. Sometimes by stopping the supply of diesel fuel from one of the Black Sea ports. Sometimes under the pretext of some delays at customs. All of this, in my opinion, is a planned campaign to increase the profits that the so-called system operators are currently making on the oil market,” the expert explains.
Mr. Ryabtsev emphasizes that fuel prices in Ukraine are already overpriced by at least UAH 5 per liter. This is the result of the policy of large branded networks.
“Thanks to the work of these networks, the so-called premium networks, the prices of petroleum products in Ukraine are already overstated by at least UAH 5 per liter,” the expert added.
Oil is getting cheaper and fuel is getting more expensive
If we compare the current cost of crude oil on the world market (about $62 per barrel) with retail prices in Ukraine, it turns out that Ukrainian traders are calculating the price as if oil costs $90.
“That is, if you try to determine the cost of oil from which such petroleum products should be produced based on retail prices in Ukraine, then according to this calculation, oil should cost about $90 per barrel. Whereas it costs 62, if I’m not mistaken,” explains Ryabtsev.
The expert recalls that traders took advantage of the information background around military events in the Middle East in the summer to raise prices and have been in no hurry to lower them since then:
“That is, having raised prices in the summer, remember that Israel was at war with Iran, and they were exchanging missile strikes, so having raised prices at that time on this wave of a sort of expected shortage, traders stayed at this level, and throughout the summer and still have not reacted in any way to the fact that oil prices were falling and the cost of oil products on the border with Ukraine was falling.
Manipulations “at customs” are just a pretext
Recent talk about delays in fuel customs clearance in the Romanian port of Constanta has become another reason for attempts to raise prices.
“And now, under the pretext that someone cannot clear something in Constanta, they are trying to convince us that the cost of petroleum products throughout Ukraine should depend on this,” the expert says.
According to the expert, the current forecasts of a possible rise in fuel prices are nothing more than an attempt to justify a new round of price increases:
“Therefore, these statements are an attempt to somehow come up with another reason to raise the price, to increase the excess profits that these companies receive. And in coordination with our official structures, because it seems to me that the so-called “regulator’s capture” has taken place in this market.”
“Regulator capture”: who controls the fuel market
According to Mr. Ryabtsev, the Ukrainian market of petroleum products has been left without effective regulation.
“It seems to me that the so-called ‘regulator capture’ has taken place in this market. That is, no one controls their activities, they set prices as they wish, and since petroleum products are an infrastructure commodity, no one can refuse to buy gasoline and diesel, so they twist and turn with consumers as they please,” the expert notes.
Thus, large networks take advantage of their monopoly position and “play” with prices, shifting risks and excess profits to consumers.
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