Ukraine’s GDP has been growing steadily since 2022, – former MP
31 December 2025 09:27
Former MP Ihor Lutsenko said that the allegations of Ukraine’s “economic exhaustion” are not true. According to him, since 2022, the Ukrainian economy has been showing stable growth, and by 2025, the country may reach a nominal recovery of the pre-war GDP level. Lutsenko wrote about this on his Facebook page, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
GDP is recovering despite the war
Lutsenko reminded that in 2021, Ukraine’s nominal GDP amounted to $195.38 billion (according to the IMF). At the same time, various institutions forecast UAH 8.5-9 trillion of GDP for 2025, which is more than $200 billion in terms of dollars.
“In 2021, Ukraine’s nominal GDP amounted to $195.38 billion, according to the IMF. For this year, various institutions forecast between UAH 8.5 and 9 trillion, which is more than $200 billion in terms of dollars,” he notes.
Even taking into account global dollar inflation, the economy has been growing consistently for the third year in a row, despite the massive outflow of working-age people and the impact on the energy, port and railroad infrastructure.
“There are significantly fewer people, electricity is intermittent, but GDP is recovering,” Lutsenko said.
The former MP admits that these figures do not take into account dollar inflation, but emphasizes the key point: the economy has been growing since 2022 without a break.
“And this is despite a huge outflow of the most economically active population, blows to the energy, maritime and railway infrastructures. There are significantly fewer people, electricity is intermittent, but GDP is recovering,” Lutsenko emphasizes.
Not just statistics: what is happening in the “material world”
He acknowledges the skepticism of some in society about official figures, but suggests looking at everyday economic markers.
“You will say that statistics is a kind of state lie, you can’t put numbers on bread. Well, let’s look at the material world in which Ukrainians live: housing, cars, restaurants,” says the former MP.
Thus, the rent for a one-room apartment in Kyiv in early 2023 was about UAH 10 thousand per month. In December 2025, it was already about UAH 16 thousand, and in the summer the price reached UAH 18-20 thousand.
“This means that people have the money to rent,” emphasizes Lutsenko.
This trend is confirmed by official statistics: the growth of average wages exceeded inflation:
- 2023 – 3.7%
- 2024 – 15.6%; and
- 2025 – 3.9% (forecast)
At the same time, he makes an important reservation:
“The only real depletion is the reduction of military personnel’s remuneration. That’s where the problem is.”
Cars: sales beat last year’s figures
Another illustrative sector is the new car market.
“In 2023, the first registrations of new passenger cars increased by about 60.6%, in 2024 – by another 14%,” Lutsenko said.
In 2025, the dynamics continued:
- september – more than 6.8 thousand new cars (20% compared to September 2024);
- october – about 7.3 thousand (34%);
- november – about 8.3 thousand (58%).
“Almost every month of 2025 shows growth. Does it look like “exhaustion”?” he asks rhetorically.
Restaurants and service: business continues to open
Lutsenko also draws attention to the catering industry, which, according to the logic of fears, should have “died” because of the war and mobilization.
“It would seem that since 2024, we should have been at home. But no,” he states.
According to his data, up to 215 new establishments were opened in Kyiv in 2025, and the net increase in Ukraine amounted to about 2,728 restaurants, bars, coffee shops, and street food. This is less than a year earlier, but it is fully consistent with military realities.
Conclusion: the economy is not an argument for surrender
Summarizing, Ihor Lutsenko emphasizes that the economic situation does not give grounds to talk about Ukraine’s “exhaustion”.
“Thanks to foreign aid and the efforts of Ukrainians themselves, the country is growing economically despite the war. Yes, there is tension and uncertainty, but the economy is definitely not an argument in favor of surrender,” he emphasizes.
In his opinion, on the contrary, these indicators indicate the viability of the state, the effectiveness of support from partners and the availability of resources for both home front life and continued resistance to Russian aggression.
