Workers from India and Bangladesh are coming to Ukraine: how migrants are changing the labor market and what will happen to wages
24 October 22:21
“Asian workers are coming to Ukraine,” the BBC reports. The media outlet writes that since September, after the rules for leaving the country were eased for young people aged 18-22, labor migrants from India and Bangladesh have begun arriving in the country. The greatest demand from employers is for drivers, welders and logistics specialists. At first, it was mostly men who came, but now women are also coming. Over the three weeks of September, about 40 thousand attempts to leave and 13 thousand to enter were recorded at the Polish border. Some universities are also reporting a partial outflow of students.
Komersant analyzed how the labor market in Ukraine will change in the near future.
The impetus was the change in the departure regime for young people aged 18-22. For business, this means the ability to fill vacancies in the bottlenecks of critical infrastructure and services faster: transportation, warehouses, courier networks, basic production, construction and installation work. In the face of staff shortages caused by war, mobilization, relocation, and emigration, companies are looking for resources where there is a surplus of labor and a willingness to work in operations with standardized competencies.
Where demand is highest and why
Drivers, welders, and logistics are the key demand areas for employers. This is logical in terms of cost structure and supply chain bottlenecks. Logistics needs to be scaled up during peak periods, welding is a core competency for the restoration of energy, transport and housing facilities, and drivers are the backbone of last-mile and long-distance transportation. In all three segments, some of the processes have already been formalized to the level of basic certifications and SOPs, which makes it easier to introduce new employees to the shift.
Who is coming: gender and professional profile
The first waves consisted of men, which is typical for heavier physical work and transportation. Later on, the emergence of female migrants was recorded – this may correspond to an expansion of the set of vacancies in logistics (sorting, picking, packaging), warehouse service operations, food production, and retail. For employers, this is a signal to prepare gender-sensitive working, living, and safety conditions.
The scale of the movement: how to read the border numbers
In the three weeks of September, about 40 thousand attempts to leave and 13 thousand attempts to enter were registered at the border with Poland. These values do not equal a net inflow of labor, but show high mobility and reformatting of flows. In practice, this means that the labor market will have to operate in a fluid mode: companies will need to adapt recruiting, onboarding, and training to frequent rotations.
Economic impact: wages, productivity, prices
In the short term, the inflow of labor migrants reduces the pressure on wages in the scarce blue-collar segments, restraining the growth of business costs. In the medium term, the effect depends on productivity: if companies systematically invest in training, line management, and standards, shift productivity increases and unit costs decrease. Conversely, a “fire kit” without integration and quality control increases hidden costs, turnover, and rejects, which eats into margins.
Migrants are changing the labor market in Ukraine: what businesses should prepare for
The acceleration of foreign worker recruitment automatically raises the stakes for compliance. It is critical for businesses to
- ensure legal employment, permits and visas, and transparent employment contracts;
- work only with licensed intermediaries, avoiding “gray” models with inflated commissions and fictitious services;
- comply with labor protection standards, insurance and minimum payment guarantees;
- provide basic language and cultural adaptation, training, and mentoring, especially in high-risk production areas.
Failure to comply with these principles risks reputational and legal consequences, including criminal liability for labor exploitation.
Read also: Ukraine is waiting for workers from abroad: how many migrants are needed to restore the economy
What the state should do in the new reality: data, rules, service
Labor market analysts point out that three things are needed to avoid chaos.
First, a unified data dashboard: entry/exit flows, work permits, and a sectoral breakdown of vacancies.
Secondly, fast legalization channels: digital services for submitting documents, standardized lists of professions, mutual recognition of certain certifications.
Thirdly, control over intermediaries: a list of licensed agencies, regular inspections, and sanctions for violations.
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If the trend of labor migrants from Asia continues, the market will experience a moderate inflow of workers from India and Bangladesh in transportation, logistics, assembly, and basic manufacturing. Salary pressures in these segments will stabilize, and shift productivity will increase where companies implement training and quality control standards. At the same time, staff turnover and competition for housing will remain a challenge: without corporate solutions and coordination with communities, the effect will be uneven.
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