From deficits to recovery: what affects demand, prices and supply of imported fruit in Ukraine
21 October 20:24
EXCLUSIVE
The full-scale invasion was a structural shock to the imported fruit and vegetable segment. According to EastFruit project analyst Yevhen Kuzin, “the full-scale invasion in February 2022 was a heavy blow to the imported fruit industry in Ukraine.” The key consequences are the forced reformatting of logistics, a reduction in the paying audience, and an overall decrease in household spending on fruit.
What are the recent trends in the imported fruit market?
Demand: compression and gradual recovery
Yevhen Kuzin notes that the main negative effects on the fruit market are compounded by another trend. This is a significant decrease in the number of consumers in the Ukrainian market.
This is especially true for women and children, who usually consume fruit and berries more actively, as well as the economic problems of those consumers who remained in Ukraine due to the war and other factors,” the expert explained.
Mr. Kuzin also emphasized that all of the above are all-Ukrainian factors affecting the fruit market. However, local or regional factors also affect the level of representation of a particular category of imports on the market, such as problems with the production of oranges for the fresh market in the world due to poor harvests of oranges for concentrate production in Brazil, or problems in the banana market in Central America.
But despite the difficulties, demand for imported fruit has not disappeared, but has changed.
Economists who have statistics on fruit and vegetable imports to Ukraine note the following: in 2022-2023, they were depressed due to migration and falling incomes. In 2024-2025, a cautious recovery began: consumers adapted, and fruit is returning to the daily basket, albeit with a more noticeable price sensitivity. A stratification is emerging between basic items (bananas, citrus fruits) and niche premium items (mangoes, avocados, kiwis), where demand is recovering faster in large cities and in the HoReCa segment.
Read about the recovery of the Ukrainian imported fruit market in 2025 in an exclusive commentary
In January-July of this year, imports amounted to 420 thousand tons, which is the highest figure since 2021.
The expert clarifies that to some extent, this growth is a reflection of problems with Ukrainian fruit production. Due to bad weather conditions in recent years, imports of stone fruits (peaches, apricots, etc.) have increased significantly. Also, for a variety of reasons, imports in the first half of this year reached one of the highest levels in recent years.
However, trends in partially or fully imported categories are also positive. Thus, during this period, Ukraine had a record import of avocados in recent years, and imports of mangoes and kiwis were among the highest,” Kuzin summarized.
Logistics: how supply chains were rebuilt in the fruit market
The new reality forced importers to build alternative routes and redistribute risks. Market research experts understand logistics restructuring as
- new ports and land corridors;
- longer delivery times;
- additional insurance and security costs;
- new requirements for warehouse infrastructure and temperature control.
All this adds to the cost of fruit and significantly affects the retail price.
Fruit imports in numbers: less tons, more dollars
To understand the main indicators in the imported fruit niche,
He explained that in pre-war 2021, about 1 million tons of imported fruit (fresh fruit prevailed, but frozen and dried fruit were also taken into account in the calculation) were on store shelves in Ukraine, worth $833 million.
In 2022-2024, the volume of imports in physical terms fell to 680-712 thousand tons, reflecting a decline in demand for imported fruit due to a drop in the number of consumers and lower spending on consumption by those who remained. On the other hand, the imports in US dollars, for example, in 2024 exceeded the pre-war 2021 figure and amounted to 870 million dollars, – Kuzin gave specific figures.
The reasons are the stabilization of domestic demand and local and global price shocks for certain crops.
Read also: Fruit prices have risen in Ukraine: why did it happen?
Prices: what drives them during the war
The price dynamics on the fruit and vegetable market in Ukraine is currently determined by a combination of three groups of factors:
- logistics risks
- exchange rate;
- global quotations.
In addition, war-related risks and longer delivery routes pushed up transaction margins. The currency factor increased the volatility of the final price. And the global situation became the third “price driver.
For example, in citrus, there was a shortage due to problems in Brazil with the orange harvest for concentrate, which also affected the fresh segment. As for bananas, we can talk about a combination of a number of negative factors for the harvest. That is why during peak periods there were sharp jumps in wholesale prices for the purchase of these citrus fruits. The result for the consumer was a significant price increase in some months, even if the annual trend was subsequently rolled back.
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Mangoes, tangerines, avocados, oranges, bananas, imported grapes: will they end up on Ukrainian tables?
Analysts who study the main trends in the fruit market note that almost every fruit has its own trends. This, in turn, determines logistics costs and affects the final price for the consumer.
Mango. The return of HoReCa and the growth of online channels supported demand. Imports over the past year have been among the highest, but price sensitivity remains. Deficit windows arise during disruptions in sea shipments and due to competition for quality shipments in the EU.
Tangerines. Seasonal basic category. Demand is stable, but the price has become more volatile due to logistics costs and situational supply constraints in certain areas. Some consumers migrate to orange or grapefruit depending on the price difference.
Avocados. One of the beneficiaries of the recovery: in January-July, imports were the highest in recent years. According to experts, this is due to the fact that the fashion for “healthy eating” is returning to big cities despite the war.
Oranges. Global problems with harvests and processing have raised the basic price level for concentrate, which has also pulled up the price of fresh orange. For Ukraine, this means higher purchase prices and more noticeable intermediate margins in the chains during peak periods.
Bananas. The number one category in terms of mass demand and the so-called “thermometer” of the import market. Storms, logistical cascades, and phytosanitary risks in Central America have repeatedly caused short-term price spikes.
Imported grapes. Fills the gaps between Ukrainian seasons. In years of weaker domestic harvests, the share of imports increases, and the price remains above average due to quality and packaging requirements. Prospects for the fruit market in Ukraine
The baseline scenario for the coming seasons is a gradual recovery in volumes with high price volatility. Importers’ business priorities include diversification of suppliers and routes, contractual flexibility, risk insurance, and working with demand forecasts in chains. For consumers, this means a wider choice in cities with a population of over a million people and more stable availability of products in retail chains, but with possible “price waves” during peak months.
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