From prediction markets to “gambling”: why Polymarket began to be blocked in Ukraine
19 January 17:05
Ukraine has officially restricted access to the American prediction platform Polymarket. The decision was made by the National Commission for the State Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCCEC), which recognized the platform’s activities as falling under the regulation of gambling, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
What happened
The reason for the block was Polymarket’s lack of a license for the type of activity that the regulator classifies as organizing and providing access to gambling. The relevant decision was formalized by NCRC Resolution No. 695, after which the platform’s domain was added to the open register of prohibited Internet resources.
According to the document, electronic communications service providers are required to restrict access to sites used for gambling without a proper license.
How blocking works
In practice, access restrictions are being implemented unevenly. Some Ukrainian users can no longer access the Polymarket website, while for others the resource remains available. This is attributed to technical features of the implementation of decisions by providers.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket does not operate according to the classic bookmaker model. Users of the platform place bets with each other by buying or selling conditional “shares” on the outcome of an event – “yes” or “no.” The probability of an event occurring is reflected in the price of such an asset and is formed by the market.
Bets can be placed on a wide range of events, from politics and economics to culture and technology. In 2025, Polymarket was valued at around $9 billion, and its founder, Shane Koplan, was named one of the world’s youngest billionaires.
Why the platform is in the spotlight
Polymarket gained global popularity in 2024 when its users predicted Donald Trump’s confident victory in the US presidential election long before the official results were announced, contrary to the parity in opinion polls.
At the same time, in 2025, the platform was criticized in the Ukrainian media for accepting bets on events related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. In particular, it was about predictions regarding the timing of a possible occupation of certain cities in Donbas.
The scale of betting in Ukraine
According to public data, as of December 24, Polymarket had completed about 240 bets related to Ukraine, with a total volume of over $270 million. Another 120 active bets exceed $140 million.
