From the betting market to “gambling”: why Ukraine has started blocking Polymarket
19 January 17:05
Ukraine has officially restricted access to the website of the American prediction platform Polymarket. The decision was made by the National Commission for the State Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCSRE), which determined that the platform’s activities fall under gambling regulations, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
The basis for the block was Polymarket’s lack of a license for the type of activity that the regulator classifies as organizing and providing access to gambling. The relevant decision was formalized by NCCEC Resolution No. 695, after which the platform’s domain was added to the public registry of banned internet resources.
According to the document, electronic communications service providers are required to restrict access to websites used for gambling without the proper license.
In practice, access restrictions are being implemented unevenly. Some Ukrainian users can no longer access the Polymarket website, while for others the site remains accessible for now. This is attributed to technical challenges in how providers implement the decisions.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket does not operate under the classic bookmaker model. Platform users place bets with each other by buying or selling virtual “shares” on the outcome of an event—“yes” or “no.” The probability of an event occurring is reflected in the price of such an asset and is determined by the market.
Bets can be placed on a wide range of events—from politics and economics to culture and technology. In 2025, Polymarket’s valuation reached approximately $9 billion, and its founder, Shane Coplan, joined the ranks of the world’s youngest billionaires.
Polymarket gained global popularity in 2024 when its users predicted, long before the official results, a decisive victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election—despite the parity in opinion polls.
At the same time, in 2025, the platform came under criticism in the Ukrainian media for accepting bets on events related to the Russia-Ukraine war. Specifically, this involved predictions regarding the timing of a possible occupation of certain cities in the Donbas.
According to publicly available data, as of December 24, approximately 240 bets related to Ukraine had been settled on Polymarket, with a total volume exceeding $270 million. Another 120 active bets exceed $140 million.
