The elections will not be quick, and the only guarantee of Ukraine’s security is a strong army, says Pendzin
14 January 18:05
Economist Oleg Pendzin is skeptical about the prospects for a quick end to the war and the holding of elections in Ukraine. He stated this in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian", emphasizing that key decisions regarding the war are currently in the hands of the aggressor state.
According to the expert, even Ukraine’s willingness to put difficult questions about the future to a referendum does not change Russia’s position.
“I am a little more pessimistic about the possibility of elections being held soon. At the moment, the fate of the war is in the hands of the aggressor,” Pendzin said.
He stressed that Russia is not interested in any referendums and intends to continue military operations.
“The aggressor will continue to fight. What is happening now is a cover for its aggression. Nothing more,” the economist noted.
2026 and “lost illusions”
Pendzin predicts that the coming years may bring new disappointments for Ukrainian society.
“The 26th year will surprise many in terms of the huge number of illusions that will be lost again,” he said.
In his opinion, the real center of decision-making on ending the war is not in Kyiv or Washington.
“The heart of that Kashchei, his death, is in Moscow,” the expert figuratively noted.
Commenting on expectations from possible negotiations between world leaders, in particular Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, Pendzin questioned their practical effectiveness.
“Does Zelensky have the authority to make decisions about the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the unoccupied Donbas? No. Can Trump decide with Putin something that does not correspond to Moscow’s interests? No,” he stressed.
Security guarantees and the lesson of the Budapest Memorandum
The economist also criticized international security guarantees, recalling the experience of the Budapest Memorandum. He stressed that even formal guarantees, such as NATO’s Article 5, do not mean an automatic military response in the event of a new Russian attack.
“Would the Americans be willing to start a nuclear war with another nuclear power? No,” the expert noted.
In conclusion, Oleg Pendzin stressed that Ukraine must rely primarily on itself.
