Modi’s visit opens new opportunities for military-technical cooperation with India – Tsybulko
23 August 2024 16:09
EXCLUSIVE
India is hardly a friend of Ukraine. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, this country has not supported a single pro-Ukrainian initiative, refrained from supporting pro-Ukrainian resolutions at the UN, did not sign the communiqué of the Peace Summit, etc. Not to mention any real assistance with weapons or finance.
Instead, India did not join the anti-Russian sanctions and made the most of this situation to its advantage (and to Russia’s) – it overtook China to become the largest buyer of Russian oil. The amount of oil that India buys from Russia has increased from statistically insignificant levels in the 2021-2022 financial year to more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023-2024, which is a third of all oil purchased by the country.
Against this backdrop, the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kyiv came as a surprise to most domestic observers and commentators. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko what this visit means and how it should be perceived.
India-Ukraine: Prospects for military-technical cooperation
Judging by India’s behaviour over the past two and a half years, the Russian-Ukrainian war does not seem to bother it much. India is focused solely on its own interests and does not even try to pretend that it is concerned about anything else. However, this does not mean that this country is closed to cooperation with Ukraine. Tsybulko believes that our country has many interesting opportunities for India, especially in the military-technical sphere.
“India has purchased a lot of Soviet weapons in its time, and it is well aware that the current Russian Federation, if the war ends, will not be able to offer it a good service in terms of such weapons. But Ukraine can offer such a service,”
– the expert notes.
Tsybulko emphasises the importance of Ukrainian developments for India.
“India has several important projects in common with Ukraine. The first is the need for, and dependence on, Ukraine for turbine power systems, because Indian ships purchased from Russia are powered by Zorya turbines, our Mykolaiv project. Furthermore, India has more than 100 AN-132 aircraft in service, and Ukraine has upgraded a certain number of them – up to a dozen in total – these aircraft that could fly for another 20 years.”
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell
India-Russia: a love affair of convenience
Meanwhile, relations between India and Russia are far from perfect, especially in the economic sphere, the expert says. India’s practical transition to Russian oil also means Russia’s dependence on it, especially as China has significantly reduced its purchases of Russian raw materials. Therefore, India can afford to dictate terms to Russia, delay payments and other things that are not very pleasant for Russia.
In addition, there is a military-technical component in these relations, which also causes problems for the Kremlin.
“Russia has disrupted the supply of many S-400 systems to India. They assured the Indians that they would deliver everything in 2024, but they disrupted these deliveries. This means that Russia has a lot of debts,”
– says the expert.
Therefore, in this context, India is pursuing a pragmatic policy that does not exclude contacts with the Ukrainian side.
India-China-West: competition for a “place in the sun”
Another important element of this global puzzle is, of course, China, whose relations with India are characterised by fierce competition for global leadership.
“India and China have conflicts and there is a big competition between them for the future. India has now interfered with China’s monopoly as a global factory, and it is India that is relocating many manufacturing companies that previously relied on China,” explains Tsybulko,
– explains Tsybulko.
India has overtaken China in terms of demographics and is now the world’s largest country by population, the political scientist notes, but in economic terms it is the fifth largest economy in the world. This economy is already competing with China in many areas, including the automotive industry, the expert adds. And here India has one very important advantage – better prospects in relations with the West.
“We can now say that, in any case, India has a better chance of building trusting relations with the G7. Unlike China. And this is its perspective. That’s why I say that there is a battle for the future,”
– the expert concludes.
So, Modi’s current visit to Kyiv demonstrates a complex geopolitical game in which India is trying to balance between different global players, using its economic and strategic advantages. And the Ukraine-Russia war, unfortunately and very likely, is not an important factor or element of this game for India.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell
