russian “military commanders” announce a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive: where the fiercest battles are likely to take place
18 December 2024 15:48
ANALYSIS FROM 
Russian so-called military commanders report that Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive that will turn the tide of the war. According to them, all possible troops are being prepared: from aviation to sailors.
“All troops are being prepared: from air force to infantry, from sailors to UAVs. It will not be possible to ignore this. The Ukrainian side is preparing for the last blow, gathering everything it can gather. Ukraine (-ed.) realizes that either they will turn the tide of the war or they will be swept away. Everything is at stake,” the statement said.
Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (retired), military analyst Roman Svitan in an exclusive commentary for KU shared his analysis of possible directions of use of Ukrainian brigades at the front. According to the expert, the main problem now is the insufficient manning of these brigades, although they are already being formed and prepared for active operations.
“Our military and political leadership has confirmed several times on the air that we have 10 brigades, but they are not currently manned. This means that they will be manned by the end of the year, when applications for the supply of equipment and weapons are closed,” he said.
Svitan also noted that Ukraine’s partners are actively working on supplying equipment and ammunition that should have been delivered during the year, and that the brigades may receive the necessary equipment in the coming months.
Possible areas of counteroffensive
Analyzing the current situation, Roman Svitan emphasized that Ukrainian troops could be sent to different areas of the front. He identified several key possible points for deployment:
Kursk direction: Svitan believes that one of the most strategically important areas for Ukraine could be the Kursk direction. This will allow controlling important infrastructure facilities.
“This will be a serious problem for the Russians, as Unecha (a city in the Bryansk region) is a key point for controlling oil pipelines,” he said.
Transnistria: Another area that could become important for Ukraine is Transnistria, where a sufficient amount of equipment and military hardware is stored. Svitan suggested that if necessary, Ukrainian troops could use these resources to strengthen their positions.
Crimea: According to the analyst, it is possible that the main offensive could be directed at Crimea. To do this, it will be necessary to force the Dnipro River, but this is possible only with the support of aviation.
“It was promised to transfer aviation by the end of the year, and this could be a key factor for the success of the offensive in the southern direction,” Svitan said.
The importance of partner support
Mr. Svitan also emphasized the importance of international partners’ support in supplying equipment and ammunition. According to him, Ukrainian brigades will be able to fully realize their capabilities only if they have proper weapons and equipment.
“At the moment there is some uncertainty as to where exactly our reserve brigades will be deployed. But they will most likely be sent to the hottest spots of the front, in particular to the Eastern Front, where the situation remains difficult,” he summarized.
Mr. Svitan also emphasized that all the information used to make the forecast is currently available to the public. However, according to the analyst, it is worth paying attention to such talk in Russian military circles, as it may indicate preparations for changes at the front.
“Russian military correspondents and bloggers are already actively discussing possible directions, and based on this, they make predictions, but the real situation may be much more dynamic and unpredictable,” Roman Svitan summarized.
Is Russia preparing for the end of the war?
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov in an exclusive interview with
“The Russians are trying to find a platform on which to end the war. Such statements are aimed at the domestic Russian audience,” the military expert explained.
He emphasized that in fact, the Kremlin is not interested in real peace, but is more focused on political populism.
Donald Trump and pressure on Russia
Oleg Zhdanov also noted that Russia understands that sooner or later Donald Trump, who has actively taken up the Russian-Ukrainian war, may start putting pressure on the Kremlin to cease fire.
“Trump has taken up the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Russian Federation realizes that sooner or later Trump will put pressure on them to cease fire,” the expert said.
At the same time, according to Zhdanov, Trump does not care how the war ends.
“He doesn’t care how it ends, where it ends. The main thing is that he comes out and says: “You see, I said they stopped shooting. That’s it, no one is being killed there anymore.” In this way, Trump can consider his mission accomplished, regardless of the real consequences for Ukraine,” Zhdanov emphasizes.
Zhdanov also noted that Russia is ready to make a so-called peace if it finds a favorable justification for it. First of all, for the domestic audience.
“Russia needs a rationale, then the Kremlin can tell its people, ‘You see that Ukraine is being given weapons, and they are preparing for a large-scale counteroffensive. Do you want to go to war and be cannon fodder? No? Then we agree to peace,” Zhdanov explains.
That is, in his opinion, the Kremlin may enter into peace talks not because of a military defeat, but for internal political reasons and a desire to avoid further losses.
Oleg Zhdanov also emphasized that the Kremlin’s statements about peace and the end of the war are primarily political populism. Zhdanov also noted that Russian propagandists often admit that most of the statements coming from the Kremlin are aimed exclusively at domestic consumption.
“Everything that comes out of Russian politicians and propagandists is 95% domestic consumption and only 5% for the West,” he said, explaining the Kremlin’s tactics.
According to Zhdanov, this policy is aimed at maintaining power and supporting nationalist sentiment among the population. In general, the military expert believes that statements by Russian politicians about the possible end of the war are more part of an internal political game than a real readiness for peace.
Thus, according to experts, the most likely areas for a counteroffensive are the Kursk direction, Transnistria, and Crimea. This makes it clear that Ukraine’s strategy is focused on a serious blow to Russia’s critical infrastructure points. However, the success of this offensive depends not only on Ukraine’s own efforts, but also on the timely supply of equipment and support from international partners.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
