“It’s not the capitals that are at war”: British intelligence says Kremlin deliberately protects urban population from losses
23 December 16:10
Russia is suffering large-scale losses in the war against Ukraine, but the main burden of mobilization is borne by poor regions and ethnic minorities. According to British intelligence , the Kremlin is deliberately limiting the participation of residents of large cities in the fighting to reduce political risks within the country, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
What British intelligence said
The British Ministry of Defense, citing intelligence data, reported that despite the consistently high casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion, ethnic Russians from large cities make up a disproportionately small share of both the military and the dead.
London estimates that in 2024 and 2025, Russia could lose more than 400,000 people killed and wounded in each of these years.
Who is fighting and dying
Analysts point out that the main recruitment efforts are focused on economically weak regions where ethnic minorities often live. There, financial incentives – payments and benefits – are more effective, and social resistance is much lower.
The intelligence also cited a study by the independent Russian media outlet Project, which found that
- less than 1% of Russian government officials have relatives who participated in the war against Ukraine.
Why the Kremlin is acting this way
According to the British side, this strategy allows the authorities to
- reduce losses among the politically active urban population;
- avoid discontent in Moscow and other large cities;
- maintain the level of support for the war among elites and key social groups.
London believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin and the top leadership are willing to accept high casualties as long as they do not pose a political threat and as long as there is a possibility of constant replenishment.
According to Putin’s decree, between October 1 and December 31, 2025, Russia plans to conscript 135,000 citizens for 12 months of conscript service outside the active combat zone.
