How markets react to the intensification of peace talks: stock exchanges after Friday
18 August 15:04
ANALYSIS
Monday, August 18, 2025. The past weekend brought an intense political backdrop – after Trump and Putin’s talks in Alaska and the meeting between the Ukrainian president and the US president and European leaders announced for today, investors tested their nerve endings.
The result is no sharp shifts: oil and gas are mostly stable, gold is climbing after a slump at the end of the week, bitcoin is correcting from record levels, and global indices are moving mixed, awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve.
According to market data, Brent is hovering around $65-66/barrel, TTF in Europe is around €31/MWh, spot gold is around $3.34 thousand/ounce, bitcoin is around $115 thousand, while Asian exchanges were updating peaks and Europe is trading cautiously.
[Kommersant asked domestic experts whether to expect a storm after this lull.
Energy: without a “geopolitical premium”
Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko in an exclusive commentary
“If you look at the oil quotations, there is no tangible reaction. Brent was around $65-$66 per barrel, and it still is… I didn’t see any reaction in gas either. Prices on the European gas and oil exchanges remained about the same as they were.”
The actual picture does indeed point to overwhelming stability: Brent is hovering around $65 and WTI around $63; the risks of supply disruptions from Russia have been partially removed by the rhetoric after the Trump-Putin meeting. European gas benchmarks TTF/UK NBP are also trading in narrow ranges near summer lows.
As for Russian oil to India, Omelchenko adds:
“India has slightly reduced its purchases of Russian oil, but in general, the monitoring shows that there have been no significant changes in oil supplies to India. There are some minor substitutions, but Russia has offered even bigger discounts. So, I think that for the time being, Russian oil will continue to go to India.”
On the market side, by contrast, verbal signals from Washington periodically add to the volatility, including statements about the undesirability of Indian purchases of Russian oil. But the supply system is generally intact, and the market is in a “wait-and-see” mode.
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Precious metals, crypto: from records to correction
After last week’s “swings” – amid discussions about possible bullion tariffs and the White House’s announcement that “Gold will not be Tariffed!”– gold is pulling up from local lows, taking advantage of softer US government bond yields and demand for safe havens.
Economist Andriy Novak warns against high expectations.
“It is too early to talk about any economic consequences of what happened in Alaska. If there are any, they will be insignificant and temporary,”
Novak emphasizes the emotional nature of the reactions:
“…perhaps some more or less significant economic consequences will follow these negotiations, but they will be emotional and temporary in any case.”
This is exactly how the crypto market looks like: after the records of a week ago, bitcoin is adjusting to around $115 thousand, and altcoins are seeing a wave of profit-taking. Analysts are talking about a potential “respite” in the range until macro factors (Fed, yields) and geopolitics set a new trend.
Asian equity markets are at records (Japan’s Nikkei, Taiwan’s indices), while Europe is cautious, waiting for both Trump’s meeting with Zelenskiy and EU leaders and clues from Jerome Powell at the end of the week. US futures are restrained: the reporting season supports the mood, but long yields are nervous. In general, the geopolitical premium has deflated somewhat, but the market is in no hurry to re-price risks without specifics of agreements.
Will Trump’s previous tariffs have a bite?
In the energy commodity markets, the effect of the duties is not yet apparent, as evidenced by stable oil and gas prices. Gold, on the other hand, has experienced whirlwind volatility due to regulatory letters on the classification of 1-kilogram and 100-ounce bullion and the subsequent political assurance that “gold will not be tariffed.”
In the consumer goods supply chain, duties are being felt more strongly: the US universal 10% tariff has been in effect since April, and the tariff truce with China has temporarily fixed the base rate at around 30% (against threats of a radical increase), while the lists for steel and aluminum have been expanded. Retailers are already factoring this into their prices for seasonal goods.
Conclusions: “There is a nerve, but no trend yet
Experts emphasize that any market reactions today are mostly short and emotional, because, as Andriy Novak says, “neither Ukraine nor Europe will make the large-scale concessions that Putin is demanding.” Therefore, it is premature to expect a fundamental reset of risk assessments.
At the start of the week, markets are listening to the Federal Reserve and waiting for substance from diplomacy rather than listing risks “in pencil.” Geopolitics is in the center of the picture, but monetary policy is now setting prices.
Oil and gas prices are steady, with no sharp flows, and Russian exports to India are also stable. The oil market likes that Trump is not imposing secondary sanctions on Russia. Fuel is calm, gold is rebounding cautiously, and crypto is cooling off after breaking records. So, in general, cautious optimism without euphoria reigns on the stock exchanges. We are waiting for the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, which will begin today at 20:15 Kyiv time.
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