How will Hungary and Slovakia’s suspension of diesel supplies affect the war in Ukraine? Experts’ opinions are divided.
19 February 16:51
The suspension of diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine by Hungary and Slovakia is a serious challenge, primarily for Ukraine’s defense forces, as virtually all military equipment runs on diesel. This was reported by military expert Dmitry Snegirev in a comment to Komersant.
“If I am not mistaken, up to 10% of diesel fuel for the Ukrainian Armed Forces came from Hungary. This is a significant percentage, and now the question of finding a replacement supplier will have to be addressed, and quite urgently,” the expert said.
According to Snegirev, the question will be either to unblock the Druzhba oil pipeline or to diversify sources of supply, given that the decision was made by two countries. He explained that the decision concerns not only diesel fuel, but also electricity. According to Snegirev, Hungary and Slovakia are trying to exert comprehensive pressure in this way. He also says that it is worth taking into account the fact that this happened on the same day, which means that these actions were planned or coordinated in accordance with the political leadership of both countries.
“That is, we are talking not only about diesel fuel, but also about the flow of electricity, which means that at the time of critical blackouts and, accordingly, the concentration of further strikes by the Russian side on Ukrainian energy facilities, this could have a rather serious negative effect, both on the Ukrainian economy and on the civilian population. In other words, there will be a shortage of electricity, because it is precisely through the flow of electricity from European countries that we have compensated for the losses of energy capacity directly in our country,” the expert explained.
Snegiryova is also concerned about another coincidence, namely that this decision is being made at the very moment of the so-called negotiation process.
“That is, when the Russian Federation is trying to push through its own vision of the negotiation process, namely territorial concessions on the part of Ukraine. Then Hungary and Slovakia can be considered part of a planned action with the Russian Federation at a time of economic, not only military-political, but also economic pressure on our country at a time of possible territorial concessions.”
Dmytro Snegirev calls all other explanations given by Hungary a distraction from the real issue. According to him, Hungary and Slovakia are trying to shift attention away from the fact that the basis for this decision is not coordinated actions with the Russian occupiers, but rather the blocking of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov says that despite the fact that military equipment, trucks, and transport also run on diesel, the problem is not critical.
“There are powerful manufacturers in Europe that can replace this supply for us. In order to give an adequate assessment, we need to know the amount of fuel that comes into our country from Hungary and Slovakia. I don’t think there are huge volumes that will affect the price of diesel or the volume of supplies,” said the expert.
Economist Oleg Pendzin said that Slovakia and Hungary are not the main suppliers of diesel to Ukraine.
“Our main suppliers are Lithuania and Poland. We used to get diesel from Romania. Remember, there were even scandals when they accused that the diesel that was coming was produced from Russian oil. Remember? Not much diesel came from Slovakia, it came from Hungary, it came from MOL enterprises,” says Pendzin.
According to him, there are currently no shortages on the European Union market.
“Yes, this will entail a certain amount of work for our traders to renegotiate contracts. Our main suppliers of fuel and lubricants are Lithuania and Poland. Well, again, that’s one thing. Secondly, did you suddenly see queues at gas stations after these statements? No, and I didn’t see any either. I stopped by today, filled up, no questions asked. Well, actually, there is no need to worry, because they were not major suppliers, right? Yes, there is something to replace them with,” explained Oleg Penzin.
The day before, it became known that Hungary and Slovakia were stopping diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine. The main reason is the suspension of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.
Словаччина та Угорщина зупиняють експорт дизелю в Україну
