Procurement breaks a record: why Russian attacks have boosted electricity imports
29 October 16:06
As of October 27, Ukraine has updated its annual maximum electricity imports: more than 300 thousand MWh per month. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to data from the consulting company ExPro.
It is noted that in September, electricity imports amounted to 140 thousand MWh, which is almost half the amount recorded in October. The key driver of growth is the resumption of massive Russian attacks on the power system, which has increased the need for external flows to cover the deficit and peak loads.
Dynamics during the month: a jump after October 10
ExPro analysts distinguish two different periods in October: until October 10, the average import per day was 7.6 thousand MWh. And from October 11 to October 27, the average daily import increased to 13.2 thousand MWh. This is almost twice the average daily value in the second half of the month.
The largest imports occurred in the evening peak hours, from 18:00 to 23:00, when domestic demand is traditionally at its highest and generation capacity is limited.
Technical restrictions and a joint limit with Moldova
on October 23 and 24, Ukraine and Moldova simultaneously reached the joint technical import limit of 2,100 MW. This is the limit of the capacity of interconnectors at a particular moment in time. After reaching the ceiling on October 25, import volumes decreased slightly.
It is important to distinguish between the quantities: MW is the capacity (instantaneous ability to transmit electricity), and MWh is the amount of energy consumed or imported over a period.
Ukraine imported 300 thousand MWh of electricity: the main factors
With the start of massive attacks by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the need to
- to cover load peaks in the evening;
- to balance the system when thermal, hydro and renewable generation is technically or resource-limited
- reduce the risk of outages when domestic production does not cover demand in certain intervals.
In such circumstances, imports become a tool for operational stabilization, especially when the price and availability of electricity from neighboring markets at specific hours are more favorable than mobilizing additional domestic capacities.
Read also: Electricity fell by 36%: why and what will happen next
Why Ukraine simultaneously imports and exports electricity
Currently, the domestic power system operates on an hourly basis: in some hours, Ukraine has an oversupply or a lower price, while in others there is a shortage and a higher price. Therefore, both exports and imports are possible on the same day. This is influenced by differences in consumption schedules between countries, price signals in neighboring markets, and regional balances within the IPS of Ukraine. We should also not forget about the technical limitations of networks and intersections that determine the available physical “corridors” for electricity flows.
Imports increased from 140 thousand to 300 thousand MWh: will businesses and households feel the changes?
Energy experts explain that the growth of imports is a safety net for the heating season in the face of risks. It
- reduces the likelihood of shortage hours during peaks when demand is high;
- mitigates price volatility on the day-ahead and intraday markets when domestic supply is limited;
- provides the system with flexibility, allowing it not to launch more expensive or less efficient units if import prices are lower during certain hours.
At the same time, imports are not an unlimited resource. The available cross-border capacity, current prices of neighbors, and the power system’s own technical limitations influence the decision.
Electricity imports and exports: what factors will be crucial in the future
When it comes to the near-term prospects in the electricity market, several factors will determine the leading trends. Among them:
1. Peak hours of 18:00 – 23:00. It is during these intervals that the largest imports are likely to occur.
2. Weather factors and grid failures. They will determine the limits of maneuver for electricity imports for the needs of Ukrainian industry and consumers.
3. Generation balance. Any additional restrictions on thermal or hydro generation will increase the need for imports.
4. Price signals in neighboring markets. If neighboring countries increase their prices during peak hours, imports may become less economically attractive for Ukraine, requiring more domestic mobilization.
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Situation in the power system as of the morning of October 29: what you need to know
The Ministry of Energy reports that as of October 29, the system is partially damaged as a result of the attacks, so in some regions of Ukraine, from 7:00 to 22:00, power limitation schedules for industrial consumers are in effect.
Electricity consumption remains high and shows an upward trend. As of 6:30 a.m., it was 2.4% higher than at the same time on the previous day, Tuesday. The reason for this is cloudy weather in most areas and a drop in air temperature in some regions.
The company is actively preparing its equipment for the next heating season and periods of high load in the summer.
As a result of Russian strikes on power facilities, consumers in Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka and Odeska oblasts are without power this morning. Due to the complicated situation in the power system caused by the consequences of previous Russian shelling in several regions of Ukraine, hourly outage schedules of 0.5 to 1.5 stages have been introduced from 08:00 to 22:00 today.
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