Instead of Taurus – a 2000 km missile: what decisions are ripening after Zelensky’s visit to Berlin
29 May 09:01
ANALYSIS
Volodymyr Zelenskyy ‘s visit to Berlin on May 28 coincided with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ‘s resonant statement about the possibility of striking targets deep in Russia with Western weapons. This revitalized the discussion about the transfer of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. However, experts advise not to jump to conclusions. Behind the scenes of the visit, another – more strategically important – story is probably brewing: a possible 2,000-kilometer missile, joint production, and a technological breakthrough for Ukraine. Why Taurus is still a “crane in the sky” and what alternatives are already on the table for Kyiv – in the article of "Komersant Ukrainian".
No decision on Taurus
The decision on the supply of these missiles has not been made yet, according to an exclusive commentary
“President Zelensky will return without missiles, that’s for sure. I talked to my friends from Germany yesterday and they say that the issue is only being discussed,”
– Stupak said.
According to the military expert, a number of legal and technological restrictions stand in the way of the transfer of Taurus cruise missiles. First of all, the missile technology control regime, which does not allow the transfer of missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers to third countries. Thus, at best, Ukraine can only rely on an export version of a missile with a limited range.
However, the expert believes that the delay in the transfer of German missiles may prompt a more strategically important decision – investing in domestic production. According to Stupak, Ukraine may soon receive funding to develop its own missiles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
“We may even be able to trade old technologies with Germany, France, and the UK, either to buy or borrow them. This will allow us to speed up our own production by 30-40%. And, quite possibly, our missiles will appear on the battlefield earlier than expected,”
– explains Ivan Stupak.
As for the Taurus cruise missiles themselves, the expert believes that Ukraine will eventually receive them, but with a significant delay. The striking potential of these missiles will not be a breakthrough at the front, but it will be able to deal a significant blow to Russian troops.
“Tauruses will allow to send a hundred or two hundred Russian soldiers to hell, but it is impossible to say that it completely changes the rules of the game,”
– notes Ivan Stupak.
A separate problem is the production of missiles by a manufacturing company that does not produce Taurus for stock, but only for a specific government order. Therefore, the expert calls on Berlin to ensure continuous production of missiles for Ukraine until it launches its own missile program.
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“Crane in the sky” or long Neptune?
Defense Express analyst Ivan Krychevsky told KSHDU Media that not everything is so clear – and the possible scenarios are much broader and more complex than just “giving Taurus”.
“I think that, firstly, it’s not about Taurus, and secondly, it would be good if it was not Taurus at all, but something technological, manufactured with the participation of our defense industry, possibly with the help of Western partners,”
– Krychevsky said.
According to the expert, Ukraine already has a development that can surpass Taurus in terms of potential, in particular, in terms of range and difficulty to intercept: the so-called “long Neptune.” The only problem is scaling up production. It is this, not single deliveries, that should be emphasized.
Europe’s rocket legacy – constraints that hold back
The analyst recalls that Europe has had strict restrictions on the production and use of intermediate-range missiles since the Cold War. After 1991, the countries imposed additional restrictions on themselves, while Russia actively ignored them, creating, for example, the Kalibr, which formally does not violate the agreements, but in fact clearly does.
“The West voluntarily adhered to the restrictions that Russia has never fulfilled. After 1991, Germany had only one type of cruise missile left, the Taurus airborne missile. The British have only intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the French have at least ASMP and ballistic missiles for submarines,”
– Krychevsky explains.
Despite the inertia in approaches, Europe has already begun to rethink its missile policy. Germany, according to the expert, is working on two promising programs: missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers and a system called RCM Square, a universal carrier for launches from land, aircraft, and ships.
At the same time, Krychevsky notes that even if Ukraine receives a few hundred Taurus, it is not enough. A massive, serial response is needed against the more than 10,000 missiles fired by Russia. The Long Neptune has the potential to be such a solution, but only in the case of international cooperation.
“We need a rocket with a range of 2,000 kilometers. We have the technological know-how, but we don’t have enough resources – chemistry, electronics, materials for the bodies. The Europeans have these components, but not the development. Together we could do it quickly and efficiently,”
– emphasizes Ivan Kyrychevskyi.
What should Ukraine do?
According to Ivan Krychevsky, Ukraine has two realistic options: either diplomatically seek to supply export versions of Taurus, such as those of Spain or South Korea, or offer partners to jointly produce a Ukrainian missile with a range of 1,000 km. The latter option could have a strategic effect and ensure long-term defense capability.
“There is no need to chase after one crane. If we do agree, it should not be on one missile, but on a new program in which partners can join not only as donors but also as co-developers. And then we will get not only weapons, but also a technological breakthrough,”
– concludes Ivan Kyrychevskyi.
So, while Europe is dragging its feet and the Taurus remains unattainable, Ukraine has a chance to move from supplicant to player. Experts agree on one thing: the bet should not be on single deliveries, but on a new program – a joint, ambitious, long-range program. The only way to win this war is to be ahead of the curve, not only on the battlefield but also in the missile shops.
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