Delay or sabotage: Three scenarios of Russia’s reaction to the 30-day ceasefire proposal
13 March 13:51
ANALYSIS
The United States and Ukraine have agreed on a 30-day truce, and the American delegation is immediately leaving for Russia. Donald trump made a corresponding statement, noting that the word is now up to Russia. Moreover, the US President’s loud statement about possible financial pressure on Moscow has stirred up the international community. But does this mean a new wave of sanctions? How does the Kremlin react to the proposal for a 30-day truce? And most importantly, is Russia ready to accept this initiative? Read more in the article of
Donald Trump has declared his readiness to put pressure on Russia, hinting at possible economic measures against Moscow.
“There are things we could do financially that would be very bad for Russia”
Donald Trump
This statement has become one of the most resonant in the international arena, as it could be seen as a signal for new sanctions or other restrictive measures against the Kremlin. At the same time, it is not clear how Russia will respond to Washington’s initiative.
Military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary for
“The main intrigue is how the Russian Federation will respond. Ukraine has done everything possible and impossible to come up with such proposals. Indeed, it is good news that the Americans supported it. Now the question is how Moscow will react.”
Ivan Stupak
According to the military expert, the Kremlin has three main options:
1. Complete rejection of the truce
“Russia can claim that this agreement does not suit it. They say that Ukraine will use it to strengthen its position. We see that Russian society, military commanders – they are all categorically against the ceasefire, because it plays into Kyiv’s hands,”
– explains Ivan Stupak.
2. Agreeing to a truce
This may cause a negative reaction among the Russian militarized society.
“This option could cause internal disputes in Russia. And although this is to our advantage, the Kremlin may fear such a development,”
– the expert notes.
3. Delaying the process under the pretext of additional requirements
“Moscow can pretend to play along with the Americans, put forward counterproposals and actually stall to avoid a real ceasefire,”
– said Ivan Stupak.
He also emphasized that Russia’s response will be indicative for the United States.
“If Moscow refuses, the question is how Washington will react. Will they just swallow it and go about their business? Or, as promised, will they impose maximum sanctions against Russia and provide Ukraine with a lot of weapons?”
– the expert summarized and added that, according to his estimates, Moscow’s decision may become known in the coming days.
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Moscow against the ceasefire: why does the Kremlin reject a 30-day pause in the war?
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin is “carefully studying” the final statements made following the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah. He urged “not to get ahead of ourselves” on the issue of the 30-day truce agreed upon by Kyiv and Washington.
Peskov also noted that a telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump “will be quickly organized” if the need arises. However, according to him, there has been no official request for such a conversation from the White House.
Commenting on the talks in Jeddah, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the main news for Russians comes not from abroad but from Moscow. She emphasized that
“the formation of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place outside the country and does not depend on external agreements.”
Russian “warlords” and ultranationalists reacted sharply to the idea of a 30-day ceasefire. Many of them, including those with Kremlin support, have spoken out against the truce, calling it unacceptable. They argue that Ukraine and the United States will use the pause to regroup and strengthen their military capabilities.
Russian State Duma deputy Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev also spoke out against the proposed truce. In his opinion, a 30-day ceasefire would allow Ukraine to rearm, which is contrary to Russia’s interests.
Thus, official Moscow and pro-Russian military analysts unanimously reject the idea of a ceasefire, seeing it as a threat to their positions on the front.
The role of the UK in the ceasefire initiative
Britain was actively involved in the development of the American initiative to temporarily cease hostilities between Ukraine and Russia for 30 days. According to sources in the UK government, over the past week, European leaders under the leadership of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have been making efforts to strengthen relations between Kyiv and Washington.
According to the BBC, last week, the British Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell worked with his American counterpart Mike Volz, as well as representatives of Germany and France, on a ceasefire plan. In addition, over the weekend, Powell personally visited Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a proposal that would include a temporary ceasefire, a prisoner exchange, and the return of deported Ukrainian children.
According to European officials, this initiative should force Russia into the center of international attention and demonstrate its position on a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Despite international efforts, the Kremlin continues to demonstrate intransigence on ceasefire issues. Refusing to agree to a ceasefire or delaying it only deepens Russia’s isolation and may push the United States and Europe to take even tougher measures. Will Moscow’s reaction be another proof of its unwillingness to compromise, or will it unexpectedly open the door to new negotiations? The answer to this question may determine the further development of the war, and it will be revealed in the coming days.
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