Winter without massive outages? State of the power system and experts’ forecasts
17 September 15:35
Ukraine is entering a new heating season with increased attention to the state of the energy system. After last winter’s large-scale Russian attacks, society is waiting to see if massive blackouts can be avoided. The government and the energy sector report on the resumption of operations, while experts warn that despite the preparations, risks remain, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
State of the power system as of September 17
As of 9:30 a.m. on September 17, electricity consumption was 4.5% higher than the day before. The reason is cloudy, rainy weather, which reduced the efficiency of household solar stations. Yesterday’s evening maximum also exceeded the previous day’s figures by 1.2%, Ukrenergo writes .
Emergency repair work continues after previous attacks. Power engineers emphasize that the situation may change, and consumers are advised to follow the messages of regional power companies.
Consequences of the weather
Strong winds and rain left 7 settlements in one region without power in the morning. Localized blackouts were reported in two other regions. Repair crews are working and the power supply is expected to be restored shortly.
Winter forecasts
According to energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev, this year’s risks are lower than last season:
- no systemic blackouts areexpected, although localized interruptions remain likely;
- the peak consumption in winter will be about 20% higher than the average annual level, while previously this figure reached a third;
- evening hours (from 17:00 to 22:00) and morning hours (7:00-9:00) remain the most critical.
Why it matters
Increased attacks on energy facilities and weather risks pose serious challenges for Ukraine this winter. Despite the relatively optimistic forecasts of experts, the key factor is the efficiency of repair services and the ability of the system to withstand peak loads.
