Ukrainian cheese market share is melting: why and what awaits producers
27 October 2025 21:40
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Ukrainian cheese market continues to show negative dynamics. According to the INFAGRO analytical group, domestic producers are preparing for a further reduction in production, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The main reason is the growth in imports of cheaper cheeses from the EU, which is intensifying amid falling prices in the European market.
Prices in the EU fell by 25%: how it changed the market
In recent months, prices for key cheese groups in Europe have fallen by about a quarter. This price collapse has created a significant difference between Ukrainian and imported products.
Imported cheeses can now be cheaper than even domestic cottage cheese, not to mention hard and semi-hard Ukrainian cheeses.
In such conditions, retail chains – from local supermarkets to national retailers – are switching to imports, as the price difference becomes a decisive factor for competition on the shelf.
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Imports are growing rapidly. Production in Ukraine is falling
In September, the pace of cheese imports from the EU accelerated significantly. The largest growth is observed in the segment of hard and semi-hard cheeses, which is where competition for Ukrainian producers is the most painful.
In general, the market has returned to the highest levels of imports that were last seen before the pandemic. At the same time, domestic demand is declining due to lower purchasing power, which makes competition for consumers even tougher.
Ukrainian producers are trying to compensate for the losses by exporting, but this is not enough. Companies are increasing their exports, but the pace of export growth lags far behind that of imports.
Exports of semi-hard cheeses have increased, but the volumes are half as large as imports.
The situation is better in the cheese product sector: it is steadily sold abroad, and its prices are closer to European ones. Processed cheese products also show an increase in exports, but their share in the overall market structure remains low.
But in the end, exports do not cover losses in the domestic market.
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The market is entering a reformatting phase: what’s next
Agricultural experts warn that if the current trend continues, Ukrainian producers will face
- a decrease in production in the segment of semi-hard and hard cheeses;
- reduction of presence on supermarket shelves;
- revision of business models, including modernization of production and change of product lines;
- reorientation to niche segments or HoReCa.
For retailers, this means increased dependence on imports. For consumers, it means more choice and lower prices in the short term. For the Ukrainian cheese industry, it means the need to adapt and invest in competitiveness.
As of now, the Ukrainian cheese market is entering a turbulent period. European imports are aggressively displacing local production, and exports are not yet able to compensate for the losses. The future dynamics will depend on whether Ukrainian companies will be able to optimize costs, revise their product policy and find competitive niches both inside and outside the country.
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