Are Ukrainians really being prepared for a war freeze and what does Orban have to do with it?
5 July 2024 15:04
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
During an unannounced visit to Kyiv on2 July, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called on Ukraine to cease fire and start negotiations with Russia.
“It is precisely because of the rules of international diplomacy that they [negotiations – ed.] are complicated, and therefore he asks the President of Ukraine to think about whether it is possible to go a little differently. To take a break”,
– Viktor Orban
Zelenskyy listened to Orban, but in response, he stated his clear position. After the Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit, the President’s Office reported on what happened behind closed doors. After all, according to many experts, the Hungarian prime minister looked like a Putin messenger, voicing pro-Kremlin theses. Komersant ukrainskyi
Hungary is not the first country to talk about such a scenario as a ceasefire and negotiations. Yes, Zelensky gave the head of the Hungarian government the opportunity to express his thoughts, says Ihor Zhovkva, deputy head of the Presidential Office, but Ukraine’s position is quite clear, understandable and known.
“We really want peace for ourselves. It is logical. We have a tool for this – the Peace Summit, which was held for the first time, and we are preparing for the second.”
– Ihor Zhovkva
Why did Orban actually come to Ukraine?
First of all, it is necessary to clearly choose the focus of perception, including Orban himself, explains for
– Orban is now in trouble in Hungary because he is backed by Péter Magyar, a former Orbanist who did quite well in the European Parliament elections. Now, in less than two years, elections to the Hungarian parliament are due to take place. And, accordingly, Orban is looking for opportunities to strengthen his position.
– How can this be done?
– First of all, it can be done through finance, by attracting money to Hungary. That’s why Xi Jinping was here in May, talking about building Europe’s largest lithium battery plant in Hungary. Therefore, Chinese electric cars, which have problems with sales in the European market, will obviously enter Hungary.
– Can we call Orban a Putin envoy who came to Ukraine to promote pro-Kremlin narratives?
– This is a misconception that Orban simply came to deliver a conditional message from Putin. I am sure that this is not the case. He, in his capacity as President of the European Union, was actually in Ukraine on the first day, and at the end of the day on 1 July, he entered the territory of Ukraine. What does this mean for a person who will preside over the EU on behalf of Hungary for six months? It means that it is important for Orban to show relations with Ukraine as one of his priorities. And it is important for us to speak to Orban in the language of European values and interests. And to say: “Mr Orban, both you and we have made different statements, but no one will play exclusively by your rules.”
– Is Orban aware of the phrase “ceasefire and negotiate”?
– The negotiation process also needs to be understood. It is no coincidence that Orban takes the position of “Baba Yaga against everything in the European political community”. He is actually demonstrating his determination to get new financial resources.
Is political analyst Fesenko actively warming up Ukrainians for the talks?
“The nation is more important than 1991, and it is possible to regain territories later” – it was after this fragment from an interview with Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko with Natalia Moseychuk that the media spread the idea that we are being prepared for something. After all, the presenter also did not stand aside from this opinion and “played along”, saying that the winner is the one who retains the capital and access to the sea.
And this raises many questions: “freeze the war and negotiate” on what terms and in what format? After so many years of unsuccessful “cooperation” with Russia, is it really possible to sit down at the table and sign any papers once again? And “we will return the territories later” – when? What about the ethical side in relation to the population that remains under occupation? And when Putin regains his strength and marches on Kyiv again, will the state mobilise as it did on 24 February 2022?
Kommersant Ukrayinsky
“The current informational and political situation around the negotiations is a prelude, as well as political reconnaissance [intelligence gathering – ed. It will be necessary to decide in what format they should take place, on what agenda, where and how they will be held. This is the key issue, really.”
– Volodymyr Fesenko
The political scientist assures that there will be no negotiations right now and even by the end of the year. But we can see in the information space how different countries, international organisations, and expert communities are fixing their possible positions, Fesenko says. But consultations, perhaps informal talks on how to proceed with official negotiations, will begin in autumn .
The expert explains his thesis in an interview with Moseychuk by his long-established position. He says that it was just that people used to pay less attention to it.
“Some people concluded that if Fesenko is talking about negotiations, it means that Bankova Street is promoting it. But I have already said that negotiations with Russia are inevitable. And the most realistic scenario for us to end the war is simply to stop the fighting. This is what is called a freezing of the conflict.”
– Volodymyr Fesenko
The political scientist also assures that some of his positions do not coincide with the opinion of Bankova Street. After all, they criticise the freezing of the conflict. And the thesis of the Prosecutor General’s Office should be voiced, in particular, by Mykhailo Podoliak and Andriy Yermak.
Moreover, Volodymyr Fesenko supported the proposal of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban. He said he disagreed with the journalists’ opinion that the official had brought Russian proposals to Kyiv.
“There is nothing of the sort, because the Russian position is to engage in military action during the negotiations, to put pressure on the negotiation process by military means. Putin did this in 2014, 2015, when there were negotiations on Minsk-1 and Minsk-2. What Orban has proposed is a truce first, and then negotiations. I don’t see anything wrong with that. But there cannot be a unilateral truce and a unilateral ceasefire.”
– Volodymyr Fesenko
Grabsky: If we freeze the war, Russia will attack again in 10 years
It is surprising that in 2024 there are talking points about negotiations that did not exist years ago, says Serhiy Hrabskyi, a reserve colonel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is confident that the topic will be presented more lively.
“Who is most interested in negotiations? China, Turkey, Orban. Because not everything is so rosy in the Russian economy. They understand that in the state they are in now, they cannot hold the front line, fight and resolve internal conflicts that are growing every day. There are approximately 2,400 man-made accidents and disasters in Russia. These are the consequences of the sanctions imposed in 2014.”
– Sergey Grabsky
The reserve colonel agrees that the nation is more important than borders. However, he believes that any stop at the intermediate stage of hostilities and the possibility of rest for Russia will mean war at least a decade later. According to him, today we can clearly say that if Russia stops, it will take 10 years to restore its combat capabilities that it had on 24 February 2022.
“Anyone who talks about negotiations is a conscious or unconscious accomplice to the crime of the Russian Federation. Carthage must be destroyed”,
– Sergey Grabsky
Counter-offensive as a strengthening of the negotiating position
on 22 May, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Administration, said the following about the negotiations:
“Russian troops must leave the country, and then it will be possible to resume the peace process.”
However, on 18 June, David Arakhamia, the head of the negotiating group with Russia on the war, predicted a counter-offensive in some places as early as August. He also predicted the resumption of negotiations with the occupiers from a stronger position.
“We could consider a political agreement like the one we proposed in Istanbul. For example, we have not touched on the Crimean issue for several years, we do not do it militarily, but do it diplomatically and politically.”
– David Arakhamia
David Arakhamia called the occupier’s withdrawal to its positions on 24 February the minimum acceptable agreement.
However, the situation at the front, as Zelensky said, is problematic. “We have only a desire to counterattack, because ‘the tools have not arrived’. And the Russians are already trying to record some of their “military successes”. Therefore, the issue of negotiations remains only in the information space and behind the closed doors of the country’s top officials.
The author: Anastasia Fedor
