Energy under siege: will Ramstein help avoid collapse this winter?
19 January 19:33
Ukraine is gathering international aid for its energy sector. On behalf of the president and prime minister, the Foreign Ministry is convening an “Energy Ramstein” meeting and working with partners to obtain additional contributions and specific commitments for support. Is Energy Ramstein capable of saving Ukraine’s energy system this year?
According to Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga, Ukraine is convening the Energy Ramstein, at which it hopes to receive additional contributions and specific commitments from its allies.
“We are in constant contact with the European Energy Community regarding the replenishment of the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the purchase of equipment using the fund. We are also using all international mechanisms: the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the Energy Charter, and other international organizations,” the minister shared his plans.
According to the minister, Norway has already provided a large package of $200 million this week for the purchase of gas and equipment. Italy has already begun supplying high-power industrial boilers (from 550 to 3,000 KW) for a total of €1.85 million, which will help the most affected communities.
“We expect new bilateral energy support packages from other partners in the near future. Additional bilateral packages to support air defense capabilities are also on the way,” the minister said.
Without Western assistance, it will be difficult to rebuild what has been destroyed
Ukraine’s convening of the Energy Ramstein is a logical response to the new challenges this winter: in addition to attacks on energy facilities, which are causing serious damage, there are also frosts that have not been seen in the last five or more years. All this together leads to even more blackouts.
“This winter is the hardest. So it is logical that the Ukrainian authorities have invited friendly countries to participate in the Energy Ramstein, where specialized assistance will be collected specifically for the Ukrainian energy sector — to eliminate the consequences and transfer equipment to Ukraine. Perhaps some countries will send repair crews of energy specialists, because there is a catastrophic shortage of them,” he said in a comment to
. [Komersant]
According to the expert, there are already some results. Without waiting for Ramstein, some countries have already allocated aid: £20 million from the UK, €60 million from Germany, and Italy is sending its first batch of energy equipment.
“If the Energy Ramstein brings together more countries that will support Ukraine, I think it will be a serious mechanism for helping to eliminate the consequences of the shelling,” Andriy Novak emphasizes.
It is very difficult to calculate exactly how much money is needed today, as the shelling continues and the damage increases every day. It is clear that the damage is enormous. Energy is one of the most expensive sectors in terms of the cost of equipment, technology, and other materials. This is especially true when it comes to dealing with the consequences of shelling or frost.
According to Andriy Novak, the decisions made at the Energy Ramstein meeting will be positive. Western countries understand the situation Ukraine finds itself in. There is hope that we will receive serious assistance in the energy sector.
Ramstein may promise a lot, but deliver little
As energy expert Yuriy Korolchuk points out, the issues that are going to be brought up at the Energy Ramstein summit are more about repairs to get ready for the next winter season. In addition, we currently have a stock of equipment that has already been transferred by foreign partners, but it is often difficult to use it quickly because it is not always suitable and has to be modified, reworked, and modernized. And that takes time. The main issue now is to ensure that the necessary equipment is supplied. In addition, the Energy Ramstein plans to allocate funds for the purchase of gas for the next season.
“I doubt that Ukraine will receive any significant support at the Energy Ramstein. Considering all the past years, they may allocate up to $3-4 billion for repairs and equipment. If you remember, equipment was ordered last year for gas production, but it will only arrive in 2027. And our gas production has fallen by 2 billion cubic meters, and repairs will cost around $700-800 million. But they may not give us that much. They will give us 200-300 million. There is also the issue of partners promising to give money, say, $2 billion, but later. In the meantime, they suggest finding it from internal reserves, and the authorities start thinking about which payments to cut in order to find this money. This has been done more than once, and it may happen again. They will not give us money directly, say, for the repair of the Trypilska TPP, so that we can buy what we need for the repair,” he notes in a comment
Yuriy Korolchuk. [Komersant]
Instead of shelters, air defense needs to be strengthened
However, there may be difficulties with the allocation of funds for the protection of our energy facilities, which they also plan to discuss with partners. We have a speculative topic — the construction of shelters. It is important to understand that no shelter, if the facility was not originally built according to a design with deep protection, will protect it from missiles, for example. Even a powerful drone with a 50 kg warhead will not be stopped by any shelter. It will only withstand the fall of drone debris at most.
“There are many energy facilities, not only thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants, but also auxiliary substations and power lines, and it is practically impossible to build a shelter over each one that can protect against missiles. It is unrealistic to build ground shelters against missiles at any existing facility, and if it is possible to protect against drones, then only against small debris — welding nets and installing concrete structures will not protect,” notes Andriy Novak.
It makes no sense to allocate large amounts of funding for these purposes. However, money, and a lot of it, is very much needed to strengthen air defense.
Author: Alla Dunina
