Less supply — higher prices: what is happening with corn on the export market
5 February 16:22
Corn prices continue to rise in Ukraine: farmers are holding back sales, waiting for more favorable conditions, while weather factors complicate logistics and limit supply on the market.
This was reported by the Electronic Grain Exchange, writes "Komersant Ukrainian".
Why corn is becoming more expensive
The key factors behind the price increase were:
- prolonged frosts, which have complicated auto logistics and grain shipments;
- limited supply from farmers, who are in no hurry to sell;
- expectations of further price increases due to a possible shortfall in the harvest.
According to the exchange, some producers prefer to hold on to their grain until weather conditions stabilize and the market improves.
Current prices in ports
Over the past week, export demand prices for corn delivered to Black Sea ports have risen to UAH 10.2–10.25 thousand per ton, which corresponds to USD 207–211 per ton.
Analysts explain that active demand from traders amid low supply supports further price increases.
How much grain has not yet been harvested
As of early February, about 8% of corn fields remain unharvested in Ukraine. This creates additional risks of crop losses and reinforces farmers’ expectations of price increases.
At the same time, the total grain harvest has already reached 29 million tons, which exceeds last season’s figure (26.8 million tons).
Who buys Ukrainian corn
In January 2026, Ukraine exported 2.9 million tons of corn. The largest importers were:
- Turkey — 625,000 tons,
- Italy — 606,000 tons,
- Spain — 280,000 tons,
- Egypt — 239,000 tons,
- Tunisia — 229,000 tons.
In total, corn exports since the beginning of the season amount to 8.8 million tons, which is significantly less than the 12.86 million tons exported during the same period last marketing year.
For the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine forecasts corn exports of 23 million tons, compared to 20 million tons in the previous season. However, further price dynamics will depend on weather conditions, the pace of harvesting the remaining crop, and the stability of logistics.
