Peace not before 2026: Russia is likely to disrupt negotiations
13 March 2025 08:47
Russia does not consider the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine before 2026 and seeks to strengthen its negotiating influence by provoking tensions between the Donald Trump administration and other states. At the same time, Moscow continues to implement its own strategy to eliminate Ukrainian statehood. This is stated in a document prepared for the Kremlin by an influential think tank affiliated with the Russian Federal Security Service, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing The Washington Post.
The document, dated February of this year, contains a list of Russia’s maximalist demands for a possible end to the conflict in Ukraine. It calls Trump’s plans to reach a peace agreement in 100 days “impossible to implement” and rejects any initiatives to deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine. The document also insists on the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories and provides for the creation of a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine and a demilitarized zone in the south.
Moscow’s demands: annexation, buffer zones, and dismantling of the government in Kyiv
The document rejects the possibility of sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, as some European countries insist, and insists on recognizing “Russian sovereignty” over the temporarily occupied territories.
It also proposes the creation of a “buffer zone” in northeastern Ukraine – near Russia’s Bryansk and Belgorod regions – and a demilitarized zone in the south, near the annexed Crimea. The latter may affect Odesa region.
The document also emphasizes the need for a “complete dismantling” of the current Ukrainian government.
Moscow’s maneuvers before the talks
The document was prepared by a think tank operating under the auspices of the FSB’s Fifth Service, which deals with operations in Ukraine, on the eve of the February 18 talks between the United States and Russia in Riyadh. It also details ways to strengthen Moscow’s position: aggravation of Washington’s relations with the EU and China, as well as offering American companies access to Russian mineral resources, including the occupied territories of Donbas, where, according to the authors of the document, there are reserves of rare earth metals.
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at this strategy, saying that Moscow might allow American companies to develop Russian deposits, including in the occupied territories of Ukraine. This is seen as an attempt to undermine the agreement between Kyiv and Washington on the development of mineral resources.
Relations with the United States and the Kremlin’s position
The document also recommends that the Kremlin take steps to normalize diplomatic relations with the United States, in particular by restoring the full complement of embassies and appointing Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s ambassador to Washington. In addition, an agreement is being proposed on the non-deployment of Russian intermediate-range missiles in Belarus in exchange for the United States’ refusal to deploy new missile systems in Europe.
The document also discusses the possibility of stopping the supply of Russian weapons to countries hostile to the United States in exchange for the cessation of American supplies to Ukraine, although the document admits that this is difficult to implement.
Doubtful prospects for negotiations
Experts note that Moscow is not interested in a quick end to the war. Former National Security Council Advisor Thomas Graham emphasizes:
“Russia is constantly talking about the root causes of the conflict – Ukraine’s internal politics and NATO’s role – and a simple ceasefire is not in its interests.”
The document also states that even possible concessions by Ukraine, such as refusal to join NATO or participation of pro-Russian parties in elections, are not sufficient.
“The current Kyiv regime cannot be changed from within the country. It needs to be completely dismantled,”
– the text emphasizes.
As for the peacekeeping mission, it is called “absolutely unnecessary,” and the US plans to continue arming Ukraine after a potential peaceful settlement are “absolutely unacceptable.”
Proposals for partial lifting of sanctions are also rejected, because, according to the authors of the document, “their importance for Russia is significantly exaggerated.”
What others are saying
According to Reuters, Russians emphasize that any agreements should take into account Russia’s achievements on the battlefield.
For example, Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, said that Russia’s advance in Ukraine should be taken into account in any agreement.
“Real agreements are still being written on the frontline. Washington must understand that,” he said,
– he said.
Bloomberg also writes that Putin’s strategy is to delay the negotiation process as much as possible.
“Russian officials have not discussed with their U.S. counterparts the specific deal that the Ukrainian delegation agreed to in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, and the Kremlin considers such a framework unacceptable, one of the people said.”
– the newspaper writes.
At the same time, as a condition for a ceasefire, the Kremlin may demand that Ukraine stop providing weapons, Bloomberg reports.
“Putin will not give a categorical yes or a categorical no. Even in a fantastic situation, when Putin makes some gestures towards a truce, it will still be temporary and with very strict conditions,”
– Tatiana Stanova, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Eurasia Center, said in a telephone interview.
This strategy has been outlined by most Russian media outlets, which usually broadcast Kremlin narratives. They write that Russia will formally accept the ceasefire proposal, but will set conditions that will be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
So far, Russia is officially silent. As U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, its reaction will show its true intentions, and we will know them soon.
