A peace card on the Chinese table: what Trump, Xi and Putin can agree on without Ukraine
27 October 15:00
US President Donald Trump said that during his upcoming meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping he plans to discuss the possibility of ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The head of the White House believes that Beijing can influence Moscow and help stop the fighting.
According to Trump, he is convinced that Putin wants to end the war, but needs “an extra incentive.” Can Beijing really put pressure on Moscow? What economic arguments does Trump have to persuade Xi to a peaceful scenario? And why does China, while recognizing the “trials of the Ukrainian people,” still avoid naming the aggressor?
Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Vice-Rector of the European University Sergiy Yagodzinsky in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian" explained why Trump is betting on China and what economic “carrots” he can offer Beijing.
“We can’t actually survive in this situation without China, because without China’s support, US sanctions may not be effective. Donald Trump is well aware of this. After all, Putin can reorient his sales markets to the Chinese market, which is huge and can support the Russian economy in the short term,” explains Yagodzinsky.
According to the professors, Trump is seeking to secure at least partial consent from Xi Jinping to limit China’s economic cooperation with Russia, especially in the energy sector.
“It’s hard to predict what Xi will do here, because China is both a competitor of the United States and has its own interests in Taiwan. But it is in Beijing’s interest not to become energy dependent on Russia. This is a short-term gain that could turn into strategic problems for China itself,” Professor Yagodzinsky notes.
Is China the key to Trump’s “peace case”?
China does not want to be a client of just one country, especially one under sanctions. Therefore, Trump’s arguments can work if he avoids pressure and ultimatums, Yahodzinsky is sure
“The main thing is not to throw threats around. China reacts aggressively to them, but it can support a model in which Russia gradually loses access to its bypass economic channels. These are not European sanctions stretched over time, but a more concentrated approach that Moscow feels painfully,” says Sergiy Yagodzinsky.
The meeting between Trump and Xi can only formalize the agreements that have already been partially agreed upon between Washington and Beijing.
“Today we see cautious signals, even from Moscow. Lavrov and Dmitriev’s statements about their readiness to consider Trump’s “peace plan” are not accidental. Perhaps they are trying to get ahead of events. And the meeting between Trump and Xi will be the finalization of what has already been worked out behind the scenes,” concludes Sergiy Yagodzinsky.
What do they say about Ukraine in China?
China “fully understands the trials that the Ukrainian people are going through today” and will continue to make efforts to bring about a ceasefire and a fair and lasting peace agreement.
This was stated by Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Ma Shengkun during a reception on the occasion of the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
“We fully understand the trials that the Ukrainian people are going through today. China has consistently maintained an objective and fair stance, actively called for peace talks and promoted a political settlement,” Ma said.
Despite the statements of support for Ukraine, the diplomat traditionally did not mention Russia as the state that unleashed the war and did not use the phrase “Ukrainian crisis”, which official Beijing usually uses to refer to Russian aggression.
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The ambassador emphasized that China is ready to continue to make constructive efforts in cooperation with the international community to bring about a ceasefire and a fair, lasting and binding peace agreement as soon as possible.
Separately, Ma Shengkun focused on bilateral relations, emphasizing that Ukraine and China remain strategic partners for 33 years of diplomatic ties.
“China is ready to work with Ukraine to expand the horizons of mutually beneficial cooperation for the benefit of the peoples of our two countries. Our economies perfectly complement each other,” Ma Shengkun emphasized.
The peace card is increasingly on the Chinese table. And if Trump succeeds in convincing Xi Jinping to limit economic support for Russia, it could be a turning point not only in the war but also in the global balance of power.
Beijing wants stability, Washington wants results, and Moscow wants to break the deadlock. Therefore, the meeting between Trump and Xi may not just symbolize the beginning of a new diplomacy, but also launch a real process of forming a peace agreement for Ukraine – with China’s participation, but not on its terms.
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