Offensive at gunpoint: where Russia is preparing to strike this summer – forecast
20 May 16:45
ANALYSIS FROM 
While the West is discussing negotiations, Russia has already moved into a new phase of the war. The offensive continues – not on paper, but in reality, at the front. Russian forces are being activated simultaneously on several fronts – Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is manipulating “peace initiatives” to hide preparations for a new wave of aggression. The General Staff of Ukraine calls it straightforward: the offensive has already begun. Where is Russia preparing its main strikes today? Is there a threat to Kyiv? And is the new chief of the Russian Army really a signal for a new escalation? Read more in "Komersant Ukrainian".
The General Staff reports that attacks have intensified in several areas of the frontline, including the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy directions. Pavlo Shamshyn, a spokesman for the Kharkiv regional military unit, emphasizes that the talks are just a smokescreen for the next phase of aggression.
“The offensive has already begun” – Shamshyn on the situation in Kharkiv region
Russia continues to accumulate equipment and manpower in the northeast. According to Pavlo Shamshyn, spokesman for the Kharkiv Operational and Territorial Group, the active phase of the offensive is actually underway:
“We see that the Russians are amassing forces, and the summer offensive campaign has actually already begun,” said Pavlo Shamshyn.
Commenting on the Kremlin’s statements about alleged peace initiatives or a truce, Shamshyn warns.
“When dealing with Russians, we need to understand a few things: Russians always lie in public space. If they don’t lie, they manipulate. If they don’t manipulate, they are going to lie,” Pavlo Shamshyn said.
Three sore spots: where Russia’s main strikes are possible
Military expert, former SBU officer Ivan Stupak identifies three main areas where Russian actions have already intensified.
Sumy region – the “dark side” of the Kursk operation
As of today, about 100 square kilometers of Sumy region are under the occupation of the Russian Federation. I’m not saying that the Russians will attack Sumy region on a full scale, but unfortunately, they can carry out a creeping offensive,” explains Ivan Stupak.
Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovs’k are under pressure
According to Stupak, the enemy has the opportunity to advance in the direction of Pokrovsk. Residents from more than 15 settlements have already been evacuated.
The day before, an additional evacuation of seven more settlements was announced. This indicates a real threat in this area,” says Ivan Stupak.
The biggest threat is between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka
“The Russians have already entered this road and actually cut it. In my opinion, this is the most threatening area. A double semi-circumvention of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka is possible. The encirclement itself is not there yet, but it is already emerging,” emphasizes Stupak.
Kyiv and the north: the threat has not disappeared, but the enemy has limited resources
The expert reassures that as of now, there is no real threatening group to re-attack Kyiv. However, there may be some activity on the part of Belarus.
For now, Kyiv is out of the question. The Russians do not have such resources. Yes, there will be joint exercises between Russia and Belarus, and Belousov visited Lukashenko. But this is more of a demonstration than a real offensive,” Stupak comments.
Read also: Large-scale offensive of the Russian Federation: when the enemy can start it
New commander in Russia – new pressure?
The expert draws special attention to the change of the commander of the Russian Army. The person who led the storming of Mariupol was appointed.
I think that he will now “kick in” and show results. Indeed, in the near future, the number of assaults and throwing of ‘meat’ may increase in order to justify the ‘high confidence of dictator Putin’,” Stupak ironically notes.
Let me remind you that Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev became the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Army. During the large-scale invasion, the 8th Army of the Russian Federation under his leadership took part in the storming of Mariupol. In 2022, the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine announced suspicion of waging an aggressive war and other war crimes to Mordvichov.
Read also: Russia’s summer offensive has already begun: the military told what to expect
Insights from Western media
The American TV channel CNN reports on preparations for a new Russian offensive, citing sources in the US government.
According to two American officials familiar with the latest intelligence, Russia is concentrating its forces on the front line for a future offensive. One of them said that “Russian commanders are looking to build a large force” that will allow them to push deeper into Ukraine, particularly in the east. The second official added:
“Putin will try to seize any land he can get, up to the outskirts of Kyiv. Russians will make every effort to get everything they can, CNN source says
CNN journalists note that Russia’s preparations for the offensive are taking place amid talk of a possible truce and negotiations in Turkey. However, the situation at the front is far from stabilized.
So, despite diplomatic rhetoric and negotiation platforms, the war is entering a new phase. Russia has not stopped – it has regrouped, and the offensive is not a future scenario, it is already a reality in northeastern Ukraine.
And while Russia manipulates the theme of “peace,” the only thing that really holds it back is drones, mines, and the resilience of Ukrainian defenders.
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