NBU maintains tight policy: why the regulator keeps the interest rate at 15.5% despite slowing inflation
11 December 2025 17:50
The National Bank of Ukraine has left its key policy rate at 15.5% for the second time in a row, despite inflation falling below 10%, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The decision was made at a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on December 11.
The regulator emphasizes that the current level of risks – primarily related to the uncertainty of international financing – does not allow for a relaxation of monetary conditions. The NBU believes that a tighter policy is still needed to keep inflation on track to the 5% target.
Why the NBU is holding back on rate cuts
The NBU explains that the decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged in October prevented hryvnia rates from sinking. This supported the interest of depositors in the hryvnia, from deposits to government bonds, and helped to curb demand for the currency.
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi emphasized that despite the tough conditions, lending in Ukraine continues to grow by more than 30% year-on-year. According to him, this demonstrates the resilience of the banking sector and the demand for financing.
External money and business expectations
The NBU separately highlights inflationary risks, in particular those related to the uncertainty of the amount and timing of external assistance. If these risks increase, the regulator is ready not only to keep the key policy rate on hold for longer, but also to introduce additional tools to curb price pressures.
It is important for the NBU to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. This directly affects the stability of the FX market, which remains sensitive to changes in the global and military situation.
What the decision means for the economy
The key policy rate is the basis for certificates of deposit, refinancing, and market loans. Keeping it at 15.5% means
- for businesses and households, loans will remain relatively expensive;
- for depositors, hryvnia instruments remain attractive;
- for the market, less pressure on the exchange rate due to limited foreign exchange demand;
- for inflation, theNBU will continue to curb consumption and money supply.
This is the third consecutive decision by the NBU to keep the key policy rate unchanged, following similar steps in September and October. The regulator wants to make sure that inflation is not only slowing down but also stabilizing at a moderate level before moving to easing.
