Air defense effectiveness is declining: Ukraine shoots down fewer Russian drones and missiles – ABC News
12 November 23:23
In October, Ukraine was able to intercept about 80% of Russian drones and only 54% of missiles, the lowest figures for 2025. This was reported by ABC News, citing data from the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Fewer downed targets: figures that cause concern
According to the Ukrainian military, in October, Russia launched 5,312 drones of various types, of which 4,242 were shot down or suppressed. This is the lowest level of success in countering drones since the beginning of the year.
Ukraine’s monthly success rate in countering Russian drones has dropped from over 90% at the beginning of this year to around or slightly over 85% in August and September.
The situation with missiles is even worse. Of the 270 missiles fired by Russia in October, only 146 were shot down, or 54%. The last time such a low figure was recorded was in April.
Why has the effectiveness of air defense decreased?
Analysts attribute the decline in effectiveness to several factors:
- an increase in the number of attacks – Russia is launching more and more drones and missiles, depleting Ukraine’s stockpiles;
- lack of ammunition – Kyiv lacks missiles for the Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T systems;
- weather conditions – autumn fog and rain complicate the work of mobile groups;
- improvements in Russian drones – they are getting anti-jamming systems and jet engines, which makes them more difficult to intercept.
Security expert Ivan Stupak (former SBU officer) noted that the average number of drones launched by Russia each month is over 4,400, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to shoot them down.
Depleted defense and the need for Western assistance
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine’s air defense system needs new supplies of missiles and modern systems.
“We simply do not have enough interceptors,” said military analyst Oleksandr Danyliuk.
The cost of a single Patriot missile can reach $4 million, while Shahed drones used by Russia cost from $20,000.
Therefore, Ukraine is trying to increase the share of electronic warfare and interceptor drones to reduce costs.
Russian strikes on the energy sector: new blackouts
The decline in the success rate of Ukrainian air defense groups comes as Moscow has expanded its strikes on critical infrastructure, including energy targets, across the country, coinciding with the onset of winter weather.
According to Ukrenergo, after the massive shelling, generating capacity dropped to zero, resulting in blackouts of 8-16 hours a day in most regions.
“Repair teams are working around the clock. Russians have increased their striking power,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram.
Increasing civilian casualties
According to the UN, in September 2025, at least 214 people were killed and more than 1,000 injured in Russian attacks.
In October, the figures remained at a similar level.
Experts warn that if the pace of attacks continues to increase and Western aid is delayed, Ukraine risks losing control of the skies during the critical winter months.
