Negotiate, divide, or freeze: Politico’s complete guide to peace plans

3 December 2024 13:36

More than a thousand days into the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, neither side has achieved its military objectives. As Donald Trump’ s inauguration as President of the United States approaches, pressure is growing on Ukraine to find ways to end the fighting. Politico has listed the peace plans that are currently on the table, and "Komersant Ukrainian" prepared a summary of this article.

Ukraine’s goals

Kyiv’s main military goal is to restore the country’s 1991 borders, which means regaining control of eastern cities such as Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Crimea. Kyiv also seeks security guarantees in the form of NATO membership or unbreakable assurances from its allies that the Kremlin will not attack again.

“If the conflict is frozen without a strong position of Ukraine, then Putin will come in two, three, five years… he will come back and destroy us completely,”

– zelenskiy said at a press conference on Sunday.

Zelenskiy unveiled his five-point plan for victory in October: an invitation to join NATO; more weapons without restrictions on their use; the ability to deter a future Russian attack; the development of Ukraine’s economic resources with allies; and strengthening Europe’s security after the war.

The President of Ukraine also has a 10-point peace plan covering nuclear security, food and energy security, release of all prisoners, restoration of borders, withdrawal of Russian troops, punishment for war crimes, environmental protection, security guarantees, and signing a treaty to end the conflict.

Reaction

Zelenskyy has toured the world with his plans and received warm words of support from many European, American, and other allied officials. However, the NATO alliance has yet to extend an invitation to join.

The Kremlin has shown concern over the growing calls for a cessation of hostilities.

“We are worried about what we hear more and more often in the West lately: in Brussels, London, Paris, Washington, they are starting to talk about a ceasefire as a way to give Ukraine a break and give themselves the opportunity to pump this Ukraine with modern long-range weapons again. This is definitely not the way to peace.”

– said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Russia’s goals

Russia’s official military goals have not changed since February 24, 2022.

Moscow’s conditions actually mean Kyiv’s surrender. Ukraine must withdraw from the territories claimed by Russia, abandon its intentions to join NATO, become a neutral country, guarantee the rights of Russian speakers, and carry out demilitarization and “denazification.”

The West should lift all sanctions and take on the financial burden of Ukraine’s recovery.

“There is absolutely no alternative for us to achieve our goals. As soon as these goals are achieved in one way or another, the special military operation will be completed,”

– said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Reaction

Russia is actively supported by allies such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Belarus, but Putin’s forces must militarily defeat Ukraine before he can realize all of Russia’s goals.

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Trump’s plan

Trump pledged to end the conflict within a day of taking office and appointed retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Russia and Ukraine with a mandate to negotiate a truce.

In July, Kellogg presented Trump with a plan that included ultimatums for Kyiv and Moscow to force them to negotiate. The United States would continue to supply weapons to Kyiv only if Ukraine agreed to negotiate with Russia and suspend its NATO membership in exchange for a security agreement. Any refusal by Russia to negotiate will result in increased US military support.

Reaction

So far, Kyiv has not commented on any plans of the Trump team.

Russia has publicly declared its openness to Trump’s ideas. However, Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, who is under Western sanctions, told the Financial Times that Putin would likely reject any plan proposed by Kellogg if it did not take into account Russia’s broader security interests.

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it, and then we tell him to go to hell because we don’t like any of it. That’s what all negotiations would be like,”

– he said.

Brazil and China’s plan

China and Brazil presented their joint proposal for peace talks in May.

Their initiative calls for: a freeze on the battlefield without escalation or provocation; direct dialogue and de-escalation towards a ceasefire followed by an international peace conference; humanitarian aid and prisoner of war exchanges; renunciation of the use of weapons of mass destruction; no attacks on nuclear power plants; and increased international cooperation.

Reaction

17 countries have joined the Sino-Brazilian initiative. Turkey is the only NATO member in this group.

Zelenskyy initially called the plan “destructive” because it did not require the withdrawal of Russian troops. However, the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, said in October that Zelenskiy would be willing to incorporate elements of the plan into Ukraine’s own efforts.

Lavrov said at the UN:

“Those provisions proposed by China and Brazil contain all the right words, such as calls for peace, justice and respect for international law. No one argues with this. I have not yet been informed how they plan to move towards peace.”

Alternative models

The Israeli model

Against the backdrop of resistance from some countries, particularly Germany, to granting Ukraine NATO membership as soon as possible, Western diplomats and even US President Joe Biden are considering the possibility of using the Israeli model. Israel is not a formal member of any defense alliances, but instead has close allied relations with the United States and European countries, which provide large-scale arms supplies and diplomatic support. The country has also developed its own advanced defense industry.

The advantage of this approach is that it does not involve other countries in a potential conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia. However, the model has significant drawbacks. Ukraine risks becoming a country living under the constant threat of war. While this has not prevented Israel from achieving economic success, the scale of the threat to Kyiv is much greater and could scare away investment. This would leave Ukraine a vulnerable state unable to stand on its own two feet. The situation could be mitigated by joining the EU, but this process also faces numerous obstacles.

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The German model

The Scandinavian countries have proposed to use the Cold War division of Germany as a model, when the western part of the country joined NATO and the eastern part was under Soviet control. According to this model, a free Ukraine would be oriented toward the West and could potentially join NATO, while the Russian-occupied eastern provinces would (currently) remain outside the alliance.

This seems to be the idea that Zelenskyy now supports.

“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that is under our control,”

– he told Sky News last weekend.

The Kremlin categorically insists that no part of Ukraine can join the alliance. According to Peskov, Ukraine in NATO is

“an unacceptable threat to Russia’s existence.”

The Finnish model

Finland was attacked by the USSR in 1939 and was forced to cede part of its territory and agree to neutrality to avoid full occupation by Moscow. Throughout the Cold War, the country remained part of the West, but with limited sovereignty and an economy tied to the Soviet Union. Finland finally abandoned its neutrality last year and joined NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This idea has been circulating in some think tanks and initially found support in Berlin, although German officials are now distancing themselves from the concept.

Finland itself considers it a terrible idea.