Ceding territories “for the sake of peace”: what is the likelihood of such a scenario for Ukraine?
10 December 2024 16:55
OPINION
In a democratic society divided by war, Ukrainians’ opinions on negotiations with Russia vary widely. For some, concessions to the aggressor are unacceptable, while for others it is an opportunity to live in a “smaller, but happier and safer Ukraine.” In particular, the comment of a man who was asked about the prospects for peace by a local TV channel correspondent on a street in Lviv was resonant.
“I would prefer to live in a smaller Ukraine, but in a happier and safer one,” he said.
What Ukrainians are ready for, what Ukraine is being urged to do on the sidelines of the United States and Europe, and whether there is a chance to restore the 1991 borders – read more in the article
The issue of peace talks is being discussed at all levels. Donald Trump, who has promised to end the war within 24 hours of his possible return to the White House, recently shook hands with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris. But convincing Ukraine’s president to sit down with Putin is a much more difficult task.
Is there an alternative?
Military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary for
“As unfortunate as it may sound, unfortunately, we have virtually no other choice. The United States is significantly reducing military aid for the next year, and European countries will not be able to provide an adequate replacement for American support. This is compounded by economic and human exhaustion within the country,” Ivan Stupak said.
The expert believes that even a return to the borders of 2022 seems unlikely in the current environment. He predicts the following scenario:
“the Russian Federation will not simply return the occupied territories. Most likely, during the negotiations, Ukraine will agree not to control the territories along the demarcation line, but will not recognize them as Russian. This will apply to Donbas, Crimea, and parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions,” Ivan Stupak.
Europe, NATO and Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex instead of memorandums
Despite this, Stupak is convinced that recognizing the fact of occupation will not mean giving up these territories in the long run. Ukraine may reserve the right to work diplomatically to return them in the future. The situation with Euro-Atlantic integration is also complicated.
“At least seven NATO countries oppose Ukraine’s membership, and this is enough to block the decision. However, membership in the European Union can become a reality much faster than joining the Alliance,” explains Ivan Stupak.
Regarding security guarantees, Stupak emphasizes the need to develop Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex (MIC):
“The best guarantee for Ukraine is to create a powerful arsenal of its own weapons. For example, the production of hundreds of missiles per month and the formation of a strategic stockpile of 20-30 thousand missiles. If these missiles are reliably deployed in different regions of the country, Russia will simply not be able to destroy them, and any attempted attack will be doomed to failure,” Ivan Stupak
Stupak summarizes that Ukraine should rely on its own defense industry rather than rely on international guarantees. After all, as the experience with the Budapest Memorandum shows, they will not work. Our own defense industry is a guarantee of security that does not depend on the opinions of Washington, London or Paris.
Let me remind you that in November, President Zelensky said for the first time that he might be open to a temporary compromise on the eastern regions if it would stop the active phase of hostilities.
Ukrainian society, in turn, remains divided on the issue of compromise with Russia. For some, ceding territory is a betrayal, while for others it is a necessary step to save lives and rebuild the country. However, the final decision depends not only on Ukrainians, but also on the position of the international community and the Kremlin’s real willingness to negotiate peace.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
