Loans are becoming a luxury: how much Ukrainians and businesses pay for loans
19 August 22:25
Loans in national currency went up in July: for businesses – up to 16.9%, for households – up to 36.2%. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian", citing statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The rise in the price of hryvnia loans means that businesses and individuals are attracting financing at a fairly high cost of credit, which significantly affects both investment activity and consumer demand. The dynamics of interest rates reflect the balance between the NBU’s tight monetary policy, inflationary risks, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite the challenges, the banking sector demonstrates a steady demand for loans (from corporate investment projects to consumer lending). Market participants are closely following the regulator’s signals on the key policy rate, as it sets the benchmark for future borrowing costs and determines how affordable financing will be in the second half of the year.
NBU policy and price benchmarks: what’s happening in the lending market
The July levels are in line with the 2025 trend: business rates remain in the 16-18% corridor, and household rates are in the mid-30% range, with moderate fluctuations from month to month. A number of media outlets cited the NBU’s operational data to report an increase in household rates at the beginning of the year and further stabilization by the summer.
The NBU’s key policy rate for the summer of 2025 is 15.5%, which sets the baseline for banks’ funding costs and lending rates. Amid inflationary risks and geopolitical uncertainty, the regulator is keeping its monetary policy in a “restrained” mode.
The banking sector reports growing demand for corporate loans (especially investment and working capital loans) and steady household demand for consumer loans. In the NBU’s bank survey, expectations for demand for business loans remained positive, while banks reported relaxing collateral requirements and expanding limits on consumer loans.
Banks’ margins on hryvnia loans (the difference between lending rates and the cost of resources) stabilized at around 7.5 pp in 2024-2025, according to the Banking Sector Review, reflecting the balance between the price of risk, the cost of liabilities, and competition for borrowers.
Bank lending in Ukraine: industry and product breakdown
The spread of interest rates is traditionally high for certain products: consumer loans to individuals are more expensive than average (due to higher risks and short maturities), while mortgages are cheaper due to their long maturity and collateral.
In its July 2025 Inflation Report, the NBU details the dynamics of interest rates by size of enterprise and product and predicts further “normalization” of loan costs as inflationary pressures ease and expectations stabilize.
Factors affecting rates
The cost of loans is simultaneously influenced by:
- the key policy rate and the yield on NBU instruments;
- competition between banks for retail and business deposits;
- portfolio quality and provisioning levels; administrative and market risks in wartime;
- the scope of preferential programs (e.g., “5-7-9”);
- recovery in business demand for investments.
The NBU analyzes all these drivers in detail in its regular reviews.
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Prospects and challenges in the Ukrainian lending market
Market expectations for the second half of 2025 are a moderate downward trend in new loan rates, provided inflation slows and financial stability is maintained, as already reflected in bank comments and analytical materials. However, the trajectory will depend on decisions on the key policy rate, funding conditions, and the risks of the energy season.
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