“Profit or default?” Ukrposhta between budget optimism and NBU criticism
16 September 2025 18:06
The Ukrainian government has submitted a draft law “On the State Budget for 2026” to the Verkhovna Rada. It mentions Ukrposhta as a profitable company that demonstrates stable growth. According to the baseline scenario, its revenues should grow by 9% annually, expenses by 8%, and capital investments by 2028 will amount to UAH 2.9 billion. This will allow the company to remain profitable in 2025-2028, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Government expectations: stability and development
The budget documents state that Ukrposhta’s pre-tax profit will grow annually. Parcels remain the main source of income, and expenses are controlled. The company’s debt is also expected to gradually decrease from UAH 1.5 billion in 2025 to UAH 1.0 billion in 2028.
The baseline scenario assumes that seaports will operate at full capacity starting in 2026, the economy will return to market conditions, the hryvnia will strengthen, and inflation will slow down. This creates the preconditions for a looser monetary policy and stable development.
Alternative scenarios: war, devaluation, losses
The government also modeled two alternative scenarios. The first one, a moderately pessimistic scenario, foresees losses in 2026 due to rising costs and depreciation, but with a gradual recovery in profits starting in 2027. The second – negative – predicts constant losses throughout the period, especially after 2025.
These scenarios take into account the continuation of the war, a delay in the resumption of shipping, a greater devaluation of the hryvnia (up to 8.9% per annum), and higher inflation (up to 10.2%).
NBU’s position: default as a real threat
The National Bank of Ukraine has expressed serious concern about the financial condition of Ukrposhta. According to the NBU, the company’s capitalization has decreased 13 times – from UAH 2.8 billion to UAH 0.2 billion. This creates risks of default to creditors, especially given the debt burden, which in 2024 is 98% of assets.
The NBU believes that the company needs to be recapitalized by at least UAH 826 million by the end of May 2025.
Smelyansky’s response: “This is not a default, but a methodology”
Ukrposhta CEO Igor Smelyansky denies the NBU’s conclusions. He argues that the decline in capital is the result of a change in the calculation methodology, not a real drop in financial stability. According to him, the company does not need budget support and will meet the NBU’s requirements with its own resources by January 1, 2026.
Smelyansky also emphasizes that the losses in 2024 were due to exchange rate differences and depreciation after investments in sorting automation.
Macroeconomic context: budget challenges
The draft state budget for 2026 was formed against the backdrop of an expected deficit of $40 billion. To cover it, the government plans to expand cooperation with the IMF. Revenues of the general budget fund are projected at UAH 2.8 trillion, which is UAH 446.8 billion more than in 2025.
Ukrposhta as a test for the system
The situation around Ukrposhta has become a litmus test for the sustainability of state-owned enterprises. On the one hand, there are optimistic government forecasts, and on the other hand, alarming signals from the regulator. The company’s ability to adapt to the new economic environment while maintaining financial stability without external support will be crucial.
