Reparations loan is in question: Belgium and other EU countries are holding back decisions on Russian assets, experts say
27 November 2025 16:58
Ukraine hopes to get certainty on the mechanism of utilization of frozen Russian assets by the end of December. However, the final decision still depends on political agreements within the EU and legal guarantees required by individual countries.
More about this in the commentary
A decision is possible, but not guaranteed
According to the political scientist, the chances of a decision on the so-called “reparations loan” are currently “50-50”.
Fesenko notes that the key obstacle is the position of Belgium, without whose support it is impossible to make a decision. Brussels requires legal guarantees from all EU countries, but such guarantees are unlikely to be provided by Hungary, Slovakia, or, probably, the Czech Republic.
According to him, even if a positive decision is made, the funds will most likely be used to purchase weapons, budget support, and partial reconstruction.
At the same time, reconstruction during the war remains a problematic issue:
“You can rebuild now, but the day after tomorrow it will be destroyed,” Fesenko said, adding that the exception is critical infrastructure, including energy.
The political analyst believes that another scenario is more realistic – a smaller loan from the EU, which will be used primarily to support the state budget and partially for defense needs.
“In terms of weapons, we are still solving problems within the framework of the PfP initiative, when some European countries give money to buy American weapons. But we are still buying European weapons, plus some resources for artillery shells, purchases from other countries, and joint military production. In particular, from Denmark, this is a Danish initiative. It’s from a number of European countries. Therefore, some money will also be spent on military support, but it will not be 140 billion, but, let’s say, half as much,” emphasized Volodymyr Fesenko.
Now we are talking about finding a legal and financial mechanism
Economist Andriy Novak in a commentary
At the same time, in his opinion, it is equally important to define the principles and rules for using these funds.
“Any resources can be used efficiently or inefficiently – to waste or even steal. Unfortunately, this is a risk for corrupt countries, which currently include Ukraine,” Novak said.
The economist emphasized that Ukraine will definitely not receive the funds by the end of the year.
“Perhaps by the end of this year, the legal and financial mechanism for the transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine will be developed. We can still hope for this. And then, again, the main thing is how these funds will be used, in what amounts, what will be the stages of transferring these funds to Ukraine.
It is clear that they will not be sold in one step, not all at once, but in stages, broken down into years, perhaps even decades,” Novak said.
He added that the main thing is to define the formula, principles for the directions and timing of these directions, where these funds will be directed, and for what purposes.
As a reminder, the Belgian depository Euroclear, which holds the lion’s share of frozen Russian assets in the EU, has warned European institutions about the financial and legal risks of the proposed scheme to use these funds to support Ukraine.
