Sharp jump in fuel prices. What is happening at gas stations
4 March 18:50
As of March 4, 2026, the Ukrainian fuel market has seen a sharp rise in prices, which have reached new highs. The average cost of the most popular fuel at gas stations in the capital is: A-95 gasoline: 68.99–71.99 UAH/liter (in some chains, the price has jumped to75–80 UAH/liter). A-95 (Premium) gasoline: 69.57–72.00 UAH/liter. Diesel fuel: 68.99–71.99 UAH/liter. Autogas: 39.05 UAH/liter. The cheapest A-95 gasoline can be found in local chains in Poltava and Kharkiv, where it costs 64 UAH/liter.
As explained by "Komersant Ukrainian" energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev , the current price increase is not fully justified economically, and what is happening now is purely speculation based on the news of the start of hostilities in Iran.
“Of course, there have been objective reasons for the price increase since the beginning of the year, but they are limited to two to two and a half hryvnia per liter. What is happening now is purely speculation based on the news of the start of hostilities. The prices currently set by most chains already correspond to oil at $100 per barrel, while the quotations do not exceed $83,” says the expert.
Gennady Ryabtsev believes that it is unrealistic to predict what the cost of fuel will be in the future.
“This is because current prices are not determined by economic factors, but are based solely on the desire of premium networks to earn as much as possible from the news.”
According to Ryabtsev, the Antimonopoly Committee will not be able to prevent price increases at gas stations.
“I have serious doubts about the Antimonopoly Committee’s ability to do anything in this market, because its methods are outdated, and its leadership believes that research and investigations in this market should only be conducted after the war is over,” explains the energy expert.
Economist and head of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Penzin says that there is usually a gap of at least 20 days between the rise in oil prices and the rise in petroleum product prices. The expert considers such a rapid reaction to be atypical and emphasizes that the situation requires the attention of the Antimonopoly Committee.
“I think that the Antimonopoly Committee should look into this issue, because there is indeed a certain correlation and a certain reflection between the price of petroleum products and the rise in prices on the world oil market. But this reflection usually has a time lag of 20 days. That is, after the price on the oil market rises, automatically, in about 20 days, the price of petroleum products produced from its oil rises. It doesn’t work any other way. It doesn’t work that way that today they raised the price of oil and in half an hour the price at gas stations in Ukraine rose.”
The expert explains that there should not be such a sharp jump in prices in Ukraine at the moment.
“A very interesting point is that, for example, fuel prices in Israel have not risen. Do you understand? Fuel prices in Israel have not risen. They will definitely rise when the time comes. But in Ukraine, they have risen,” says Penzin.
The expert draws attention to another aspect — the synchronism of price increases. In his opinion, if prices rise too quickly, it is possible that there is a conspiracy among traders.
“Look, here’s another point. Both regional and, say, chain gas stations. What did they do? They raised prices equally. Okay, I understand that there are different batches of petroleum products and different delivery conditions. If someone raised the price by one hryvnia, someone by three, someone by fifty kopecks, I would understand. There are market relations, there are circumstances. But when everyone raised prices by three hryvnia at the same time, small, large, medium, chain, and regional, I have a feeling that this is, excuse me, a cartel conspiracy, that these are coordinated actions on the market.”
However, Oleg Penzin, like Gennady Ryabtsev, does not rely on the intervention of the Antimonopoly Committee. He explains that fuel prices are rising, and, according to him, they have not even managed to make a statement.
“That is, there is an Antimonopoly Committee, which should investigate this issue and give its position. And I was very surprised that today is already, in fact, the third day, well, definitely the second, the third day of these unauthorized price increases is coming to an end. I specifically went to the Antimonopoly Committee’s website and looked, and listen, there is no statement. I have a question, guys, what are you doing? Well, you get a hefty salary from the budget.”
Even before the war in Iran began, gasoline prices in Ukraine were rising, but these were mostly moderate fluctuations. Then, on March 2, the situation changed dramatically: the market reacted with a jump in prices, and gas station operators quickly set new prices for fuel. In just the last few days, fuel has risen in price by at least 5 hryvnia per liter. At the same time, experts do not rule out further price increases during the week. If the geopolitical situation worsens, experts predict that gasoline prices could rise to 100 hryvnia per liter.
