Russia is rapidly increasing its weapons production: aviation, navy and drone construction in the spotlight
7 July 12:33
Russia has significantly increased the production of military equipment, including aircraft, drones and armored vehicles, indicating that it is preparing for a long-term conflict with the Alliance. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to open sources, Russia is significantly increasing investments in the defense industry and expanding the production capacity of key military platforms that the aggressor country plans to rely on in a future conflict with NATO.
For example, data from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, published on June 26, show impressive figures. Industrial production in Russia grew by 2.6% between April and May 2025, with most of this growth attributed to a “sharp” increase in defense production.
The aviation industry is showing record performance
The performance of the aviation industry is particularly impressive. The monthly rate of aircraft production in May 2025 increased by 16.9% compared to April 2025 and was 1.6 times higher than the monthly production rate in 2024. It is worth noting that this happened even before the SBU’s Operation Web.
The Center also reported a 16% increase in marine and aviation production capacity between February and May 2025. These data indicate that Russia is trying to expand its shipbuilding and aircraft manufacturing capacity, which is a medium- to long-term effort and likely part of an ongoing effort to restructure and rebuild its forces to prepare for a long-term conflict with NATO, ISW believes.
Armored vehicles: modernization and stockpiling
Satellite images of selected armored vehicle repair plants in Russia provide further evidence that the country is increasing its ability to produce infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
A social media source that tracks equipment in Russian military depots and repair facilities through satellite imagery reported that Russia is now able to restore and produce more BMPs than before. The reduced use of armored vehicles and tanks since the winter of 2024-2025 has allowed Russia to build up stocks of infantry fighting vehicles.
Kurganmashzavod remains a key enterprise
The source noted that Kurganmashzavod remains the only publicly known Russian enterprise capable of producing Soviet BMP-3s. Satellite imagery indicates that some Russian armor repair plants appear to have used up most of their Soviet BMP stockpiles, although at least one production plant in Rubtsovsk, Altai Krai, appears to have significantly improved its modernization capabilities.
It remains unclear whether Russia is seeking to accumulate materiel to prepare for a larger offensive against Ukraine in the near to medium term, or to rebuild Russian military forces to prepare for a broader future conflict with NATO.
Additional open source intelligence indicates that Russia is successfully increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities, further underscoring Russia’s ongoing investment in long-term tank and armored vehicle production capacity.
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Drones: from hundreds of thousands to tactical innovations
Russia’s ongoing efforts to expand drone production have a more immediate impact on the front lines in Ukraine, although Russia will continue to benefit from enhanced drone production capabilities during any future conflict.
On June 27, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov visited various Russian military-industrial enterprises in the Novgorod region, including a fiber-optic drone production site that produced the first model of Russian fiber-optic drones, the “Prince Vandal Novgorodsky.”
The Russian government’s press release on the visit stated that Russia is now able to domestically produce hundreds of thousands of fiber-optic drones per month and fully meet the needs of the Russian Armed Forces.
Expanding the technological base
Manturov also visited a number of other defense companies in the Novgorod region, including companies specializing in electronic components, and toured the new semiconductor materials science laboratory at the Intellectual Electronics-Valdai Innovation Science and Technology Center.
Manturov instructed the Ministry of Industry and Trade to study the possibility of recapitalizing the Novgorod Region Industrial Development Fund to support the production of high-tech products.
The Institute for the Study of War has previously noted that Russian production of fiber-optic drones has allowed Russian forces to create new battlefield dilemmas for Ukrainian forces starting in mid-2024, as these drones are resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference, provide accurate strikes on armored vehicles, and are scalable due to their simplicity.
The Russian forces continue to implement tactical innovations that correspond to technological improvements in weapon systems.
Priority of “Geraniums” over guided bombs
A Russian milblogger recently claimed that Russian forces are increasingly using Geranium-2 and Geranium-3 drones – Russian counterparts to Iran’s Shahed-136 – instead of guided glider bombs for short- and medium-range frontline strikes.
The milblogger noted that Russian forces began to reorient the use of Geranium drones last winter, when Russia began mass production of them with improved speed, range, and payload capacity.
According to the milblogger, Russian forces are using these drones to strike Ukrainian warehouses, command posts, and strongholds on the front line and in the near rear.
Milblogger noted that elements of Russia’s 51st Combined Arms Army (formerly the DPR’s 1st Army Corps, Southern Military District) have pioneered the massive frontline use of Geranium drones, and that Russia’s Central Group of Forces, which operates primarily in the Pokrovske and Novopavlivka areas, will reportedly soon introduce the use of Geranium-2 drones after Russian manufacturers further increase production rates.
Potential to replace heavy bombs
The milblogger estimated that Russian forces could replace 500- and 1,000-kilogram KAB glider bombs with Geranium-3 drones if Russian developers are willing to compromise on the drone’s range to accommodate the increased payload.
The Russian milblogger’s analysis is largely consistent with the Institute for the Study of War’s observations that Russian forces are increasingly using Shahed drones to strike Ukrainian targets along the front line.
Experts’ conclusions
The Institute for the Study of War believes that these data indicate that Russia is systematically preparing for a long-term confrontation that could go beyond the conflict in Ukraine and include a potential confrontation with NATO.
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