Trump is ready to “drain” Ukraine in exchange for the Arctic – The Spectator
12 August 2025 10:11
Economic cooperation between the United States and Russia in the Arctic may form the basis of a future agreement between Trump and Putin to end the war in Ukraine. This is stated in an article by international lawyer James Tidmarsh for The Spectator, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Arctic interests as a basis for negotiations
According to the author, Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov said at a press conference in Moscow that
“it is in Alaska and the Arctic that the economic interests of our countries coincide and prospects for the implementation of large-scale mutually beneficial projects arise.”
These words indicate that Arctic economic cooperation will be the focus of attention during the meeting between Trump and Putin, the author believes.
Thepotential of the Arctic is impressive in its scale, the expert notes. About 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves (approximately 90 billion barrels) and 30% of natural gas are concentrated in the Arctic. Russia controls about half of these resources.
Historical background and opportunities
The author reminds us that the United States and Russia have already had similar experiences. In 2011, ExxonMobil signed a landmark deal with Rosneft to explore and drill in the Russian Arctic, particularly in the Kara Sea. The tens of billions of dollars project was suspended in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea due to Western sanctions.
The resumption of the Arctic partnership could go beyond oil and gas, Tidmarsh writes, including liquefied natural gas terminals, port modernization, and joint development of the Northern Sea Route.
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The logic of the deal for both sides
As the author notes, for Putin, the Arctic can become a “sweetener” that will ensure that the United States agrees to a settlement on his terms in Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow is unlikely to back down from its basic demands for war.
Any agreement would recognize Russia’s gains, require the demilitarization of Ukraine and the creation of a buffer zone against NATO, the article says.
For Trump, this would be an opportunity to present the Arctic deal as a major commercial victory for the United States and end the war, which he attributes to Biden’s mistakes.
Pressure on Ukraine
The author emphasizes that Trump’s leverage is straightforward: Kyiv’s survival depends on American weapons and money. By threatening to cut them off, Trump can force Zelenskyy to the negotiating table on terms that Kyiv has long rejected.
Ukraine’s position is fragile, Tidmarsh notes. Its army is depleted, its economy is crippled, and its war effort is dependent on Western aid. European and British promises mean little without American firepower and funding.
Reaction of the allies
According to the expert, the EU and the UK will protest loudly, but they lack the leverage to block the US-Russian deal. Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin have made it clear that no settlement should be made over Ukraine’s head, but moral objections are no substitute for real power.
Instead, the author notes, much of the global South sees the war in Ukraine not as a border clash, but as an obstacle to global trade and growth. For China, India, and Brazil, ending the war, even entirely on Russia’s terms, would be perceived as pragmatic diplomacy.
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