Wheat prices may rise due to drought: what analysts predict
25 September 05:14
The global wheat market is under pressure from climate risks, and the price of grain could rise significantly in the coming months. The drought in key producing countries and the reduction of stocks create the prerequisites for the price increase. This is reported by the press service of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC) with reference to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Current situation in Ukraine
According to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, as of September 22, Ukraine exported almost 1.7 million tons of wheat. This allows the market to remain stable for now.
The indicative price for 3rd class wheat remains at $212-214 CPT-port.
Such pricing is explained by sufficient stocks of products among traders and high supply of grain on the global market, particularly from Russia.
However, the situation is already changing: contracts for October are concluded at a higher price – $218-220 CPT-port, and the cost may increase to $223.
Why growth is expected
Analysts explain that the key factor will be a reduction in stocks and uncertainty about the future harvest.
In Ukraine, the central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and no significant precipitation is expected in the near future.
In Russia, there is a moisture deficit, and the pace of the sowing campaign is the slowest in five years.
The situation is similar in France, Romania and Bulgaria, where the lack of moisture threatens the volume of winter crops.
As a result, the area under winter wheat may decrease, which will encourage importers to buy grain more actively now.
“Importers, anticipating potential problems with the 2026 harvest, may be more active in purchasing grain. Therefore, in January-March, wheat prices may rise significantly,” the analysts believe.
As a reminder, as of September 19, 2025, Ukraine harvested 29.8 million tons of grains and legumes. The harvest was carried out on an area of over 7 million hectares, which is 62% of the total area under crops.
The largest amount of wheat was harvested – 22.5 million tons from more than 5 million hectares.
