“Ukraine is Sparta”. Is General Kellogg’s peacekeeping mission possible?
26 December 2024 16:04
ANALYSIS
“It’s Sparta,” General Keith Kellogg said of Ukraine, who is now determined to reconcile the warring kingdoms. Who is he and what exactly will he do? "Komersant Ukrainian" found out.
The Special Representative for Ukraine, retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who was elected by future US President Donald Trump, has made an important statement. He made it after the missile attack on Christmas Eve.
“The United States is more determined than ever to bring peace to the region,”
– the official said.
What steps should we expect from this Trump appointee?
Kellogg is Trump’s loyal man
The position of special representative for Ukraine involves finding ways to end the war and coordinating the efforts of American diplomacy in this area. Obviously, Kellogg will be meeting and negotiating with representatives of both countries at war.
At one time, during Trump’s first presidential term, a similar position was held by Kurt Volker. As we remember, the mission of the American representative was not successful, and he was also involved in a pre-election scandal involving the search for dirt on Trump’s rival Joe Biden and his son Hunter. But this is a very old story, and since then, the stakes on the geopolitical map have increased many times over. So now, instead of a diplomat, a general with both military and political experience has been appointed as special representative for Ukraine.
Keith Kellogg, now 80 years old, is a Vietnam War veteran who served as chief of staff and executive secretary of the U.S. National Security Council and national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence during the last Trump administration. Prior to his new position, he headed the America First Policy Institute, a think tank informally close to Donald Trump.
As with other appointments to his administration, Trump chose a person who was personally loyal to him. During the 2020 presidential election, Kellogg persuaded his immediate boss, Vice President Mike Pence, behind the scenes to cancel the results of the vote, as Trump demanded, as he did not recognize Joe Biden’s election victory. Mike Pence did not yield to those persuasions, for which he was accused of treason by Trump, and the militant Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol demanded that he be hanged.
Kellogg supports Trump’s rhetoric about depriving those NATO members who do not allocate enough money for their own defense of the security umbrella provided for in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. He even develops this idea creatively: in his opinion, NATO should become a “multi-level alliance,” with some members being more integrated into security structures and some less so.
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Kellogg and Ukraine
Fortunately, this Trump appointee is not only notable for his loyalty to his superiors, but also for his knowledge of the job he will be doing. It is interesting to follow his statements on the war in Ukraine. Just a month after it began, Kellogg dubbed Ukraine a “new Sparta,” calling for help to keep it going:
“Let’s give Ukraine a chance to win. Why? Because it will reset the whole world, not just Europe. The Chinese will pay attention. The North Koreans will pay attention to it. The Iranians will pay attention. I think you have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to reset the world stage.”
More than two years into the war, his enthusiasm for this has not waned, unlike many other Republicans. In August, he gave a favorable assessment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operation in Kursk.
Kellogg criticized the Biden administration for delaying the provision of weapons to Ukraine. In his opinion, if the West, and especially the United States, had provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons when the Russians were fleeing Kharkiv and Kherson regions, Ukrainian troops would have reached the Azov Sea coast, and the war would have been over long ago. But the supply was very slow, and time was lost, allowing the Russians to gain a foothold and go on the offensive.
Keith Kellogg opposes Ukraine’s admission to NATO in the short term, instead offering firm security guarantees in the form of a bilateral agreement to be approved by the US Senate: similar to those of South Korea and Taiwan.
Kellogg considers the demand for Ukraine to downsize its army and reduce its weapons, voiced by the Russians during the Istanbul talks, unacceptable. Instead, mediation in the talks by President-elect Trump could, in his opinion, bring success.
The general believes that Biden’s authorization of the use of long-range US missiles in Russia will give Trump more leverage and strengthen his position in future negotiations.
Kellogg’s plan
Keith Kellogg, together with his former colleague on the National Security Council under Trump, Fred Fleitz, developed a strategic plan, one of the chapters of which is entitled “America First, Russia and Ukraine.” The strategy, developed by the institute where Kellogg worked, emphasizes the need to end the war and begin negotiations. This is the most detailed plan for the peace process developed by the Republicans.
The incentive for Ukraine to come to the negotiating table is quite simple: its agreement to do so will determine the future prospects of U.S. arms supplies.
In order to bring Russia to the negotiating table, both carrots and sticks have been prepared for it. The carrot is that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is off the table for the foreseeable future. There will also be talk of partial lifting of sanctions (though the tax on Russian oil and gas imports will be used to rebuild Ukraine). The stick – in case of refusal, the flow of weapons to Ukraine will become much more powerful.
Ukraine will not be offered to give up the territories occupied by Moscow, nor will it be offered the prospect of their return. But this prospect will be postponed for the indefinite future. In the meantime, the line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine will be the current front line. And then, someday, after Putin’s death, it will be possible to do it diplomatically.
What are the prospects?
Of course, the plan looks convincing on paper, but will Ukraine and Russia accept it?
There shouldn’t be any major problems with Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that it is unacceptable to legally give up the territories occupied by Russia. But this, according to the plan, will not be demanded. He also recognized the impossibility of armed access to the 1991 borders of Ukraine.
With Russia, it will probably be more difficult. At the CSTO summit in Astana on November 28, Putin reiterated the demands for peace with Ukraine that he had voiced in June: Ukraine must give Russia Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in their entirety, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Of course, neither Ukraine nor the United States will accept these demands. But, on the other hand, this may be an invitation to negotiate, when maximum demands are made to get something less substantial. Whether the Kremlin will be brought to the negotiating table will be known soon.
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Author: Oleksandr Olesiv
