Ukrainian milk holds its price: stability amid falling demand and pressure from Europe
24 September 2025 15:58
Milk prices in Ukraine remain almost unchanged, despite a decrease in demand in the domestic market and a drop in dairy prices globally, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to theUkrainian Association of Milk Producers, as of September 20, the purchase price of extra milk was 17.45 UAH/kg excluding VAT. This is only 0.1 UAH higher than a month ago. Similar dynamics are observed for premium and first grade milk.
In September, the weighted average price of the three categories of milk amounted to 17.35 UAH/kg, which is 0.15 UAH more than in August.
Why prices are not falling
According to Georgi Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association, the market is in a state of “stable stagnation.”
- demand for finished products is declining;
- exports to the EU have virtually stopped;
- supplies to the former Soviet Union are also declining;
- retail chains in Ukraine are reducing purchases;
- global dairy prices are going down.
Pressure from abroad
The situation is complicated by international agreements: according to the agreements between the US and the EU, Europeans have to buy up to 20 thousand tons of American dairy products duty-free every year.
In particular, American butter costs 3.5 euros per kilogram, which is almost twice as cheap as European butter. This creates an additional challenge for EU producers and indirectly affects Ukrainian suppliers.
The Ukrainian context
“It is difficult for Ukrainian enterprises with outdated material and technical facilities to compete with American producers who have lower costs,” the association notes.
As a result, the production of butter, milk powder, casein, and cheese products in Ukraine is becoming unprofitable.
What’s next
Analysts predict that prices for raw milk in Ukraine will remain stable in the coming months. However, continued low demand and lack of access to key markets may lead to a reduction in production and increased competition among processors.
The Ukrainian dairy sector has traditionally been export-dependent. After 2022, when Russia destroyed part of the logistics and sales markets, producers tried to reorient to the EU. However, increased domestic competition in Europe, trade barriers, and cheap imports from the United States are creating new challenges. This calls into question the profitability of domestic production, especially for small and medium-sized farms.
