Ukrainians lose faith in European future: for the first time, pessimists outnumber optimists
9 July 16:03
A new study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has recorded a dramatic change in Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the country’s future. For the first time ever, the share of pessimists has exceeded the share of optimists in terms of the vision of Ukraine in 10 years, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the survey, conducted in May-June 2025, only 43% of Ukrainians believe that in a decade Ukraine will become a prosperous member state of the European Union. This is a sharp drop from 57% in December 2024. Instead, almost half of the population (47%) now believes that Ukraine will be a ruined country with a significant outflow of people in 10 years – almost a doubling from 28% six months ago.
The paradox of unity amid pessimism
An interesting feature of the current moment is that pessimism about the future is combined with a growing sense of unity in society. The share of those who believe that Ukrainians are overcoming contradictions and are on the way to becoming a united nation has increased from 53% to 61%. This was mainly due to a decrease in the number of undecided respondents.
At the same time, one-third of the population (33%) still believes that internal contradictions are deepening and Ukrainians are heading for a split, a figure that has remained unchanged since December 2024.
Loss of correlation between unity and optimism
It is particularly significant that for the first time, the correlation between the perception of unity in society and optimism about the future has disappeared. Previously, those who saw more unity were also more optimistic, but now this connection has been broken.
Among those who believe that society is moving towards unity, the number of optimists and pessimists is almost equal – 43% and 47% respectively. Among those who see a movement towards a split, the figures are almost identical – 44% of optimists and 48% of pessimists.
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Regional peculiarities: pessimism has spread throughout the country
The study shows that pessimism about the future has spread throughout Ukraine, regardless of region. The differences between regions were insignificant:
- western Ukraine: 44% of optimists, 47% of pessimists;
- center of Ukraine: 47% of optimists, 43% of pessimists;
- south of Ukraine: 49% of optimists, 39% of pessimists;
- eastern Ukraine: 47% of optimists, 42% of pessimists.
At the same time, in all regions there is a tendency to increase the share of those who see a movement toward unity.
Trust in the president and assessment of the future
The study revealed an interesting pattern in the relationship between trust in President Zelenskyy and assessments of the country’s future. The biggest changes have occurred among those who trust the president.
In December 2024, 71% of Zelenskyy’s supporters were optimistic about the future, and now this figure has dropped to 41%. Among those who do not trust the president, the figures remained almost unchanged (48% of optimists vs. 42% in December).
The Trump factor: dashed hopes
Researchers suggest that the change of administration in the United States could have had a significant impact on the change in sentiment. In December 2024, 73% of those who expected Trump to bring a just peace to Ukraine were optimistic about the country’s future.
However, in May-June 2025, only 41% of those who consider Trump’s presidency to be good for Ukraine remain optimistic. Among those who consider it bad, the figure is almost the same (43%).
Western support: loss of influence on optimism
The survey showed that the perception of support from Western partners has little or no impact on the assessment of Ukraine’s future. Among those who feel Europe’s support is consistent, 48% are optimistic and 44% are pessimistic. Among those who believe that Europe no longer supports Ukraine strongly, the figures are almost identical – 45% of optimists and 46% of pessimists.
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Readiness to fight remains high
Despite the growing pessimism about the future, Ukrainians retain the will to continue their resistance. Interestingly, the level of readiness to fight almost does not depend on an optimistic or pessimistic assessment of the future:
- among optimists, 62% are ready to endure the war as long as necessary;
- among pessimists, this figure is 60%.
At the same time, among those who see unity in society, the readiness for long-term resistance is much higher (72%) compared to those who see a movement toward a split (40%).
Territorial compromises: positions remain firm
Regarding territorial concessions, both optimists and pessimists show similar and high readiness to reject unacceptable demands:
- 70% of optimists and 74% of pessimists are strongly against the official recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia;
- 85% of optimists and 75% of pessimists are categorically against the transfer of the unoccupied territories under Russian control
Experts’ conclusions: an alarming trend
Anton Grushetsky, Executive Director of KIIS, believes that the weakening of faith in the country’s happy future is definitely an alarming trend.
“To a large extent, the current war and the losses associated with it are perceived as an ‘investment’ in the fact that Ukraine and Ukrainians will finally be able to live normally,”
– the expert notes.
Hrushetsky warns that the less Ukrainians believe in the prospect of becoming a prosperous EU member state, the weaker their resilience and ability to mobilize resources to resist the enemy will be.
At the same time, the expert notes that Ukrainians retain the will to continue their resistance and are not going to capitulate regardless of their assessment of the future. However, he warns that the growth of pessimism may at some point transform into a higher readiness to surrender.
Research methodology
The survey was conducted on May 15 – June 3, 2025, by telephone interviews among 1,011 respondents in all regions of the government-controlled territory of Ukraine. The statistical error does not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%.
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