The NBU warned of a significant rise in fuel prices: what are the reasons?
14 December 18:11
The National Bank of Ukraine warns of a significant rise in the price of motor fuel from the beginning of 2026 due to the planned increase in excise tax. Prices at gas stations will remain stable until the end of 2025, but from January 1, 2026, the market expects an accelerated increase in the cost of gasoline, diesel fuel and autogas.
This is stated in the NBU’s report on forecasts for the fuel market, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The regulator notes that the increase in excise rates will be a key factor in fuel price increases in 2026 and subsequent periods. The changes are provided for by the current legislation and will come into force on January 1, 2026.
Excise tax rates will increase in the following proportions (per 1000 liters of fuel)
- gasoline: from EUR 271.7 to EUR 300.8;
- diesel fuel: from EUR 215.7 to EUR 253.8;
- autogas: from 173 euros to 198 euros.
The NBU emphasizes that even with the decline in wholesale gasoline prices in the second half of the year, the retail price at gas stations will not change significantly by the end of 2025. This is due to the expected increase in excise taxes, which will offset the incentives to reduce prices.
The wholesale market reportedly showed a slight decline in gasoline prices, but there was no significant adjustment in the retail network.
According to the NBU, after the introduction of the new excise rates, the fuel market will enter a phase of accelerated price increases, which will affect both prices for end consumers and the overall inflationary dynamics in the country in 2026.
