Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland: How Trump is changing the rules of the game in the world and what it means for Ukraine
7 January 16:16
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was brought before an American court after a US special operation. And the world was divided into two camps. Maduro’s son called it a “kidnapping” and warned of a dangerous precedent, while Nicolas Maduro himself refused to admit guilt, declaring himself the legitimate president and a prisoner of war. European leaders are trying to comment on the event with restraint so as not to weaken the coalition supporting Ukraine, while Kyiv strongly supported the people of Venezuela and condemned the actions of the Maduro regime, including election fraud and systemic human rights violations.
Caracas proved that in modern politics, international law is increasingly giving way to the law of force. Is the US really ready to “rewrite” the rules of international law? How will Trump’s actions against Cuba, Mexico, and Greenland affect regional stability, and what lessons can Ukraine learn from them? Finally, what does the signal from Caracas mean for those countries that are weaker than the United States?
The key factor in the Venezuelan events is not political sympathies, but oil. This was stated in an exclusive commentary by Serhiy Yahodzinsky, Vice-Rector of the European University, Doctor of Science, Professor.
“There are worldview, financial, and economic issues, as well as a lever of influence on global processes – oil,” explains Yahodzinsky.
And Trump himself does not hide his plans to return American companies to Venezuelan oil. The US president said that American oil companies can help modernize the destroyed Venezuelan infrastructure and receive compensation from the US or through production. According to his estimates, the expansion of production in Venezuela can be completed in 18 months, but it requires significant investments. The largest players in the market – Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron – are in no hurry to return. Currently, the Americans’ return is hampered by worn-out facilities, political instability, and uncertain legal conditions after the nationalization of Venezuelan oil and US sanctions.
Maduro’s trial is a signal to the world
At the same time, the professor emphasizes that the case of Maduro should be a signal to other countries that are weaker than the United States.
“What happened to Maduro should hint to all leaders, even those less powerful than the United States, that irreparable things can happen to them if they do not at least play the game imposed by the United States,” Serhiy Yahodzinsky
At the same time, Yahodzinsky recognizes that this is a clear violation of international law.
“Donald Trump acted more like a leader of his country and only then – as president and guarantor of the implementation of international agreements,” Yahodzinsky said
Trump vs. Maduro: Conclusions for Ukraine
The expert immediately refutes the popular comparisons of Venezuela with Russia or Ukraine.
“There will obviously not be a scenario like with Maduro and Putin. We need to forget about it. These are fantasies that we would like to joke about,” says Yahodzinsky.
Similarly, what the Russians dream of there should also remain a fantasy. The history of Venezuela and the United States is long, complex, and defies simple comparisons, Yahodzinsky adds
For Ukraine, the key is to maintain a negotiating position, demonstrate loyalty, and understand its role in the global system of alliances.
What’s next: Colombia, Cuba, Greenland, Mexico, or Iran?
After the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump announced plans for possible military operations in other countries, including Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Iran, and Greenland. On board Air Force One, journalists received a list of potential targets from Trump, but American analysts are unanimous: the most realistic next “conquered” territory could be an autonomous Danish territory in the Arctic.
“Trump has presented a long list of potential future conquests, but the most likely target of his administration will be Greenland,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution, an American think tank.
The US president justifies his interest in the island with national security. According to him, Denmark is not able to protect Greenland from potential threats from Russia and China on its own. In addition, Greenland has rich natural resources, and its strategic location in the Arctic, between the United States, Russia and Europe, makes it key to controlling shipping and trade in the northern latitudes.
Trump also said that Cuba’s fate is tied to Maduro’s fall and Venezuela’s loss of ability to finance allies in the region.
“I think it’s just going to fall. I don’t think we need to take any action,” Trump said when asked about a possible US operation on the island.
Moreover, the US President once again proposed to include Canada as the 51st state in the United States, sharing several maps on Truth Social showing the country as part of the United States.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that Mexico will become the main oil supplier to Cuba in 2025, overtaking Venezuela. According to Kpler, Mexico exported an average of 12,284 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, which is 56% more than in 2024. This is what is allegedly capable of “infuriating Trump,” as Cuba’s shift away from Venezuelan influence contradicts his expectations of regional loyalty and political dependence.
The Iranian government is in a dead end, primarily because of the complete economic collapse to which it has brought the country. This was stated in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian" by retired Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) officer, military and political analyst Grigory Tamar.
He drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement about possible US intervention.
“If Iran’s intelligence and security forces fire on demonstrators, the United States will intervene. In general, when the government orders the security forces to shoot at its own people, it means that the legitimacy of the government actually disappears,” Tamar says
The overthrow of Maduro, the change in oil suppliers to Cuba, and Trump’s plans for American companies demonstrate that the United States is ready to use economic and political pressure even without direct military action. For Ukraine, this is a lesson in flexibility: to maintain a negotiating position, control its own resources, and understand that in global politics, power and economics are often more important than formal rules.
