Military analysts answer whether strikes on Kyiv are a sign of a Russian counter-offensive
21 March 2024 13:15
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
After a pause of 44 days, the Russian occupiers launched another missile attack on Kyiv. The enemy used X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and ballistic missiles from the territory of Russia. Komersant ukrainskyi 
asked military experts whether they consider this shelling to be a sign of a major Russian counter-offensive, which has been discussed so much lately.
In a conversation with Komersant ukrainskyi military experts emphasise that a sign of a counter-offensive is, first and foremost, the accumulation of a strike group. So far, this is not the case.
“There is no strike group located on the border in Sumy or Kharkiv regions. Such attacks happen every two to three months. There have been more powerful ones. Now there are fewer of them, because they have fewer air-launched missiles, these are Soviet-made X-101s, and there cannot be an infinite number of them. Kharkiv is being hit with other weapons, primarily converted S-300 missiles, and now they have added chessmen. Therefore, this strike on Kyiv is just another attempt to test our air defence in Kyiv and possibly deplete the amount of ammunition for air defence,”
– said military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov.
According to another military expert, Pavlo Narozhny, such a grouping should include at least 100,000 personnel:
“A strike group is about 100,000 personnel, including tanks, fuel tankers, and a large number of artillery. When it forms somewhere, it will be a sign of a Russian offensive. Currently, there are no signs of such a formation on any part of the frontline. A counter-offensive is when Ukraine advances in a certain area of the front, has conquered 10-20 km of territory, has not managed to gain a foothold, and the enemy retaliates. When we have gained a foothold or the Russians have gained a foothold in a certain section of the frontline, it is an offensive, and it is different from a counter-offensive. Neither Ukraine nor Russia can launch a counter-offensive now. In both cases, it will be an offensive. Therefore, the events in Kyiv are not a sign of an offensive or a counter-offensive.”
The expert also does not connect this shelling with the recent shelling of Kharkiv or the bombing of Sumy region.
“Of course, this is part of a bigger strike against Ukraine, but we cannot say that it has a direct connection. In Sumy, they are simply destroying all the border towns and villages. This is done so that Ukraine cannot use these villages and towns as fortifications in case of an offensive by Russia, so that we cannot gain a foothold in these territories, or use them as a base for an offensive, for sabotage groups, etc. They are simply destroying everything on the border. There are no such attacks on Kyiv as in Sumy region,”
– narozhny said.
He believes that today’s shelling is more likely an attempt to hit Ukraine’s economy, as the Russians are likely to target infrastructure nodes.
